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Euro zone services PMI fails to maintain momentum

Published 06/23/2009, 04:00 AM
Updated 06/23/2009, 04:16 AM

* Euro zone services PMI eases in June, below expectations

* Factory recession eases, but PMI still at very low level

* Manufacturing orders to inventory ratio highest since Nov 2007

By Nigel Davies

LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - A recovery from a severe recession stalled in the euro zone's services-led economy in June, but manufacturers fared better as they ran down stocks of goods to new lows, key surveys showed on Tuesday.

The surveys hinted that the worst of a dark recession had passed in the euro zone, but that a recovery may well take some time to bed down.

Markit's Eurozone Flash Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of around 2,000 companies slipped to 44.5 in June from 44.8 in May. That was well below the 50.0 mark that divides growth from contraction, and also fell short of economists' expectations for a rise to 45.8.

"The data question whether we will see such a strong 'V' shaped recovery," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, the data provider.

"(A) return to growth not until the turn of the year looks more likely."

A mild deterioration in the services sector contrasted with encouraging signs for the region's factories, albeit from low levels.

Markit's Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 42.4 from 40.7 in May, its highest level since last September and just up on the 42.3 predicted by economists.

Williamson said the data still pointed to the economy contracting between 0.5 and 0.6 percent in the second quarter, and that growth may not be seen until the last three months of the year.

The small fall in the services PMI was outweighed by the large jump in the manufacturing index, taking the Composite index of the two up to 44.4 from 44.0, its highest since September.

The data will likely encourage the European Central Bank to leave rates on hold at a record low of 1.0 percent for some time to come to support a fragile economy.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet warned on Monday that there were still risks of a sudden emergence of unexpected financial turbulence despite recent encouraging signs.

Earlier surveys showed contrasting views for the euro zone's two major economies. While France's composite PMI jumped to its highest level since June last year at 47.7 from 46.6, Germany's combined PMI fell to 43.4 from 44.0 as its services economy contracted much faster than expected.

Markit said the data raised the possibility the German economy could contract in each quarter this year.

The euro zone data for the services sector as a whole did include some encouraging signs, however.

The incoming new business index rose to 43.3 -- its highest since September -- while the business expectations index for the year ahead soared to its best level since July 2007.

And that may have contributed to a rise in employment indexes. The Composite employment index rose to 42.3 from 40.7.

CAN CONSUMERS MATCH BUSINESS?

Euro zone's manufacturers showed signs of climbing too from a severe recession that has seen production dry up.

The main index at 42.4 was well above its 33.9 low hit in December and came as the contraction in new orders eased considerably as did factory output.

Factories are also running down old stocks at a rapid rate. The orders to inventory ratio, a key gauge of pressure on companies to raise production, jumped again in June to 1.08 from 1.04 in May, its highest level since November 2007. That suggested that companies would have to pick up production going forward. But Markit questioned whether consumers would start spending again in order to drive the recovery on.

"Can household demand translate business confidence into actual growth? If there are constraints there we may well see a longer period of contraction than we might have otherwise," said Williamson.

Inflation pressures also picked up a little in June across both the services and manufacturing sectors, but still pointed to inflation at very low levels. Official inflation in the euro zone fell to zero in May.

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