COPENHAGEN, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Shares in Danish brewer Carlsberg dropped more than 3 percent on Thursday after the Russian government proposed to triple excise tax on beer by 2012.
Russia is an important growth market for Carlsberg, the world's fourth biggest brewer, which owns Russian Baltika and had a Russian market share of 38.3 percent in 2008 -- though analysts said the impact the measure would have on beer sales in the country was as yet unclear.
Carlsberg shares traded down 3.2 percent at 380.50 crowns at 0922 GMT, recovering from a one-week low of 375.50 crowns.
The stock underperformed the Copenhagen bourse's bluechip index which fell 1.6 percent, and was the weakest performer in a DJ Stoxx food and beverage index that fell 0.7 percent.
The Russian government late on Wednesday approved a 2010 budget that includes a plan to triple the excise duty on beer from the current 3 roubles.
The changes are expected to bring an extra 65.1 billion roubles of revenues into government coffers next year.
A half litre bottle of beer in the shops typically costs between 20 and 50 roubles.
A Carlsberg spokesman said the company was still waiting for information on the final proposal to be sent to Russia'a parliament, the Duma.
"We have not got any information on what proposal this will end up with, (and) which the finance minister will put forward so we have no comment," said spokesman Jens Peter Skaarup.
The head of the Russian brewers' association told Reuters in the summer such a rise in duties could halve beer sales in the country.
But some analysts said the proposed increase was less onerous than expected and would have much more modest impact on beer sales.
"News on changes in Russian beer tax is less onerous than feared," Evolution Securities analyst Simon Hales said in a research note.
"We estimate that in 2010 this will increase the retail price of an average beer by 3.4 percent," he said. "We expect little change to consensus forecasts on this news and remain buyers of Carlsberg with a target price of 430 crowns."
But Andy Ford at Cazenove Equities said: "The increase in duty would ... increase the retail price by 14 percent assuming that it was fully passed on to the consumer."
"Proposals to increase the level of duty on beer have been made in the past, only to be watered down as they passed through the political process," Ford said. "The proposals go to the Duma in September, so we assume there is still time for lobbying to reduce the extent of the increase."
(Additional reporting by Toni Vorobyova in Moscow, David Jones in London and Peter Levring in Copenhagen)
(Reporting by John Acher; editing by John Stonestreet)