Investing.com -- U.S. President Donald Trump didn't unleash tariffs on 'day one' as many had feared, but Barclays (LON:BARC) warns that markets shouldn't get complacent for too long, and singles out Apr. 1 as a key date to watch for changes to tariff policy, citing clues from the 'America First Trade Policy' presidential memorandum.
"President Trump did not impose tariffs on day one. Instead, he issued a presidential memorandum entitled 'America First Trade Policy,'" Barclays said in a note. "Investors should read the memorandum as a blueprint for what to expect next on tariffs."
The memorandum directs certain departments and agencies to review and issue reports by April 1, 2025. These reports, the analysts believe, are likely to serve as the catalysts for new tariff proposals or adjustments to current tariffs.
In further support of the Apr. 1 as key date to watch, the analysts believe the timeline also provides ample time for the Senate to confirm key positions, including Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary and Jamieson Greer as US Trade Representative. These two roles need to be filled before the Trump administration begins to alter tariff policy, the analysts added.
Following the reports due on Apr. 1, changes to tariff policy could be announced, likely taking effect 30-to 60-days later, Barclays said.
The presidential memo suggests that various tariffs could be on the table including a universal tariff and tariffs targeting China, Mexico, and Canada.
Trump has, however, already threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting Feb 1, and up to 100% tariffs on China over TikTok, but Barclays believes the timeline proposed in the memorandum carries more weight rather than these "off-the-cuff remarks."
The memorandum also calls for investigations into the causes of the U.S.'s annual trade deficits in goods and recommendations for remedies, which could include "a global supplemental tariff or other policies."
This suggests that "countries and sectors most vulnerable to targeted tariffs could be those with the largest trade deficits in goods with the US," Barclays said.