Selloff or Market Correction? Either Way, Here's What to Do NextSee Overvalued Stocks

Russian rouble drops to record lows in Moscow amid fresh sanctions

Published 03/09/2022, 04:51 AM
Updated 03/09/2022, 04:56 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Russian Rouble and U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken, February 24, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
STT
-

(Reuters) -Russia's rouble tumbled to record lows in onshore trading on Wednesday despite measures by Moscow to shore up its battered economy and safeguard hard currency availability amid fresh economic sanctions triggered by its invasion of Ukraine.

Catching up after two days of market closure, the rouble jumped to 120.83 to the dollar on the Moscow Exchange before clawing back some losses to close at 120, or 12.5% softer than its Friday close.

It closed 6.3% weaker against the euro at 127 after hitting a record 131 per euro in early trade.

Offshore rouble trading was also thin with large disparities in pricing: On Refinitiv, the rouble stood at 129 to the dollar while on the EBS platform it was bid at 138 from the previous 130 close, down 5.8%.

Russia's financial markets have been thrown into turmoil since its invasion of Ukraine prompted severe economic sanctions.

On Wednesday, the European Union froze ties with the central bank of Belarus, an ally of Russia in its Ukrainian invasion, and top banks there.

"If we just take a step back and think about the near term, the headlines about lack of liquidity, how the military situation evolves, that will determine a lot of the near-term trading," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.

"But if we think about the long term economics, a very weak rouble certainly makes sense for the foreseeable future."

The central bank has more than doubled its key interest rate to 20% and the government has rolled out support measures, but Russian assets have been sold heavily and the rouble is now down around 30% against the dollar in Moscow since Russia sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

On Tuesday, the central bank said it was offering additional crisis support to financial firms and that banks were banned from selling foreign currency to its citizens for the next six months, a move seen aimed at preserving precious hard currency in the country.

The finance ministry said Russian banks will be allowed to lend to companies controlled by non-residents, which would allow companies wishing to do business in Russia to operate as usual.

Trading in equities on the Moscow Exchange remained closed. Stocks last traded in Moscow on Feb. 25.

BMO's Ma said that once the stock market reopens there is a chance that prices will drop further than what their longer-term value will be, but timing that will be very hard.

"It's certainly not something for anyone who is unwilling to take an extreme amount of risk because the reality is that many international investors simply want out and price doesn't really matter," said Ma.

Russia's 5-year credit default swaps - a measure of the cost of insuring exposure to the country - soared sharply to a record 2,960 basis points and was recently at 2,939 bps.

Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 9.15% in February from 8.73% in January, its highest in seven years, with prices soaring further on a weakening rouble.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Russian Rouble and U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken, February 24, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street (NYSE:STT) Global Markets, said in a research note that there were signs prices in Russia had risen sharply since the rouble's slump - more so than in prior currency collapses.

"If it were sustained in the coming weeks and months, (this rate) could see the Russian annual inflation rate almost double in the coming months," Metcalfe wrote.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.