💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

Marketmind: The real balancing act

Published 05/05/2022, 02:43 AM
Updated 05/05/2022, 02:46 AM
© Reuters. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 28, 2022.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Files
RDSa
-

A look at the day ahead in markets from Saikat Chatterjee.

Market reaction after the U.S. Federal Reserve's 50 basis-point interest rate rise was a classic case of "buy the rumour and sell the fact". The dollar weakened, Treasury yields declined across the board and U.S. stocks jumped by almost 3%, its biggest rise in two years.

The immediate trigger was the Fed's rejection of even bigger 75 bps rate rises going forward. But all said and done, U.S. interest rates will rise by nearly 2 percentage points by year-end, if not more, and that raises some questions about the outlook for U.S. equities.

Still, Asian markets took their cues from Wall Street on Thursday. Hong Kong's tech shares index is up more than 1%, also on expectations Beijing will open the monetary spigots -- the People's Bank of China pledged policy support to help the economy after a private sector survey showed a sharp contraction in the country's services sector.

European stocks are set to open higher.

On bond markets, the Fed's signal eschewing 75 bps moves allowed rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yields to close 13 bps lower on Wednesday. That move has carried through, with Australian and German short-dated yields also lower on the day.

It's been a big week in central banking - and now after the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia and an unscheduled rate hike from India, all eyes are on the Bank of England.

While the Fed's decision was relatively straightforward, its counterpart in London has a trickier job at hand, trying to balance soaring inflation with growth risks caused by a cost-of-living squeeze.

For Thursday, money markets comfortably predict a quarter-point hike to 1% but a Reuters poll of economists finds some uncertainty over the future rate hike path.

Elsewhere, oil prices which rallied as much as 5% on Wednesday on news of a planned European Union ban on Russian oil, consolidated those gains. China's dire services PMI is clearly a dampener.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

Central bank meetings: United Kingdom, Norway, Czech Republic, Poland

© Reuters. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 28, 2022.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Files

China's services activity falls at second sharpest rate on record - Caixin PMI

Shell (LON:RDSa) posts record profit on high energy prices and trading boost

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.