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India's current account gap narrows, BoP in surplus in Q2 FY24 - cenbank

Published 12/26/2023, 07:37 AM
Updated 12/26/2023, 07:50 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A general view of Mumbai's central financial district, India, November 22, 2017. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/File Photo

By Swati Bhat

MUMBAI (Reuters) -India's current account deficit narrowed more than expected in the July-September quarter largely due to a lower merchandise trade deficit while services exports also grew, the central bank said in a statement on Tuesday.

The current account deficit stood at $8.3 billion, or 1% of GDP, in the second quarter of fiscal 2023/24 compared with $9.2 billion or 1.1% of GDP in the preceding quarter.

The CAD had been at $30.9 billion or 3.8% in the same quarter a year ago.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll of 18 economists was for a deficit of $9 billion.

"Following the expansion in the merchandise trade deficit in October 2023, we expect the CAD for the ongoing quarter to widen appreciably, to around $18-20 billion," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head - Research at rating agency ICRA, adding that the Q2 number was well below their forecast of $13 billion.

"Nevertheless, we now foresee the FY2024 CAD in a range of 1.5-1.6% of GDP, unless commodity prices chart a sharp rebound."

Merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $61 billion in the quarter, from $78.3 billion in the year-ago quarter.

"Services exports grew by 4.2% on a y-o-y basis on the back of rising exports of software, business and travel services. Net services receipts increased both sequentially and on a y-o-y basis," the central bank said.

India's merchandise trade deficit narrowed sharply to $20.58 billion in November from the previous month's record levels as imports of gold, petroleum and electronic goods moderated, latest data showed.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A general view of Mumbai's central financial district, India, November 22, 2017. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/File Photo

Private transfer receipts, which are mainly remittances by Indians employed overseas, rose 2.6% to $28.1 billion on year.

The country's balance of payments recorded a small surplus of $2.5 billion in the September quarter, compared with a deficit $30.4 billion a year ago. The surplus, however, narrowed sharply on a sequential basis from $24.4 billion in the June quarter.

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