PARIS (Reuters) -French President Emmanuel Macron's government is too optimistic about the economic outlook and its plans for reducing public debt and the deficit are based on reforms that have yet to be implemented, the head of the top public audit body said.
In an interview with Le Figaro newspaper, Pierre Moscovici said a note that France is due to send to the European Commission on the country's economic outlook already factors in the positive effects of reforms of pensions and unemployment benefits.
"Neither the form nor the effect of these reforms have been quantified, and the forecast is based on the idea that the results of these reforms will be major and virtually immediate, which is far from certain," Moscovici was quoted as saying.
On Friday, the High Council on Public Finances (HCFP) will publish its opinion on the state budget programme that France will send to the European Commission. The note was due in spring, but the government preferred to wait for the presidential and legislative election results in April and June, Le Figaro reported.
Moscovici is also the president of the HCFP and is a former French finance minister, who served under socialist President Francois Hollande.
Moscovici told Le Figaro that the government's forecast for 2.5% growth in 2022 is not out of reach but seems on the high side, while the 1.4% forecast for 2023 is too optimistic.
He also said that the 2023-2027 forecast for average growth of 1.35% per year is "optimistic and higher than the consensus forecasts".
He said the government forecasts already factor in higher employment levels due to the pension and unemployment benefit reforms, but that this is far from certain.
"In the past, we have seen that reforms are hard to implement and take a long time to have an impact," Moscovici said.
He said that with a forecast for a state deficit of 2.9% of GDP - barely below 3% - in 2027 and a forecast for a state debt stable at about 112.5% of GDP, the French debt reduction trajectory is "not very ambitious".
"By 2025, France might be among the few nations not to have brought its deficit below 3% of GDP. If France is the EU country that makes the least effort on the debt front, people will notice in the end," he said.