50% Off! Beat the market in 2025 with InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Colombia 12-month inflation forecast to slow further in September: Reuters poll

Published 09/29/2023, 01:38 PM
Updated 09/29/2023, 01:41 PM
© Reuters. People walk through the Paloquemao market square, amid inflation reaching the highest figures in years, in Bogota, Colombia October 7, 2022. REUTERS/Luisa Gonzalez

By Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombia's inflation likely slowed in September due to a moderation of domestic consumption, a Reuters poll revealed on Friday, though forecasts for the year rose due a spike in energy prices amid the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon.

According to the median forecast from 16 analysts, consumer prices in September were seen up by 0.51%, slower than the 0.70% recorded in August and 0.93% in the same month last year.

Forecasts ranged between 0.40% and 0.74%.

If the median estimate is met, Colombia's 12-month inflation through September would hit 10.98%, slower than the 11.43% through August but far from the central bank's 3% target.

"Inflation has proved that its correction is fragile and highly dependent on some volatile elements such as food. In that sense, the decline in inflation could take longer than anticipated," said Jackeline Pirajan, an analyst at Scotiabank in Colombia.

The government's DANE statistics agency will publish data on September's inflation on Oct. 6.

Forecasts for Colombia's inflation in 2023 rose to 9.30%, compared to an estimate of 8.90% in last month's survey. Expectations for 2024 now see inflation closing at 5.10%, higher than the 4.45% forecast last month.

High inflation is the main reason why Colombia's central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate by a total of 1,150 basis points between September 2021 and last April, taking it to 13.25%.

The bank has kept the rate steady since June.

© Reuters. People walk through the Paloquemao market square, amid inflation reaching the highest figures in years, in Bogota, Colombia October 7, 2022. REUTERS/Luisa Gonzalez

In a recent Reuters poll, all 21 analysts forecast the bank's board would hold the rate steady during its meeting on Friday.

"Inflation in Colombia continues to be at double-digit levels unlike other countries in the region. A rate cut can have a rebound effect on prices," brokerage Casa de Bolsa said in a research note.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.