(Bloomberg) -- Chinese banks are expected to hold their main lending rates steady in the absence of more easing from the central bank, which is trying to strike a balance between preventing faster inflation and supporting the economy.
All 19 economists polled by Bloomberg forecast the one-year loan prime rate will be left unchanged at 3.7% Wednesday. It was last lowered in January. Twelve of the 14 economists surveyed for the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, predict that it will be kept at 4.45%, while two others see a cut of between 5 and 10 basis points.
The LPRs are based on interest rates that 18 banks offer their best customers and are given in quotes as a spread over the rate of the People’s Bank of China’s one-year policy loans. The PBOC has kept that rate unchanged since January.
The PBOC is expected to continue providing support for the economy in the second half of 2022, although “this will most likely take place via targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts and faster M2 and credit growth,” Carlos Casanova, senior economist for Asia at Union Bancaire Privée UBP SA, wrote in a note Tuesday. “The window to cut rates has now closed.”
The PBOC and Chinese leaders have recently highlighted their concern over the potential transmission of high inflation from overseas, and signaled a reluctance to lower interest rates given ample liquidity in the interbank market. Rate hikes in major economies including the US and European countries have also limited China’s room for monetary easing due to fears that cutting rates while other nations are raising them would lead to capital outflows.
However, a recent mortgage payment boycott by buyers of unfinished homes has prompted calls for more policy help for the property sector, including a reduction in the five-year LPR. The last reduction in mortgage rates was in May, when banks cut the five-year rate by a record 15 basis points after the PBOC effectively lowered the minimum rate for new mortgages by 20 basis points.
“As the concern on property has been rising lately, a cut in 5-year [rate] could lend supports to the sector and boost confidence in the market,” said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group (OTC:MQBKY) Ltd.
Banks could lower the 5-year LPR as their funding costs have come down after declines in deposit rates, said Ming Ming, chief economist at Citic Securities Co. He predicts a reduction of 5-10 basis points.
The weighted average interest rate on new deposits was 2.32% in June, 12 basis points lower than in April, when the central bank urged financial institutions to cut the rate.
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