🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

BOJ debated groundwork for future easy-policy exit at Oct meeting

Published 11/08/2023, 08:23 PM
Updated 11/09/2023, 02:55 AM
© Reuters. Staff members of Bank of Japan walk between the BOJ headquarters buildings in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) -Some Bank of Japan policymakers last month called for the need to start phasing out massive stimulus and lay the groundwork for a future exit from ultra-low interest rates, a summary of opinions at their October meeting showed on Thursday.

The discussions highlight how the BOJ is looking to exit its decade-long accommodative regime, as prospects of sustained inflation and wage growth heighten.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament on Thursday that companies were becoming more active than before in raising prices and wages, signalling his conviction that Japan was making progress towards hitting the bank's 2% inflation target.

"We expect trend inflation to gradually approach 2%. But we'd like to wait until we have more conviction that sustained achievement of our price target comes into sight," Ueda said.

"Until then, we will maintain negative interest rates and the yield curve control framework."

At the Oct. 30-31 meeting, the BOJ kept its ultra-low interest rate targets unchanged but tweaked the yield curve control (YCC) to loosen its grip on long-term interest rates.

While the BOJ board members saw the move as largely aimed at mitigating the side-effects of YCC, one of them said it would also help in "smoothly proceeding with a normalisation" of monetary policy, according to the summary.

Another opinion showed how one board member saw prospects of sustainably achieving the BOJ's price target having heightened further since the previous meeting in July.

"It's therefore necessary for the BOJ to gradually adjust the degree of monetary easing down from its maximum level," the member was quoted as saying in the summary.

'WAKE-UP CALL'

The comments highlight a growing view within the central bank that conditions for phasing out massive stimulus were falling in place, reflected in part by a sharp upgrade in the board's inflation forecasts made at the October meeting.

Some members pointed to broadening corporate price increases and steady increases in service costs, the summary showed.

"It seems that achievement of the BOJ's price target is coming into sight," one member said, adding that the second half of fiscal 2023 - which runs from October this year through March next year - would be an "important period" to determine whether the target would be achieved.

Another opinion said the BOJ must lay the groundwork for a future exit by taking steps to improve bond market liquidity, and "offer communication that prepares markets for a world of positive interest rates."

Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ (NYSE:MUFG) Morgan Stanley Securities and a veteran BOJ watcher, said the central bank was likely sending a "wake-up call" to markets that the decades-long era of super low rates was coming to an end.

Former BOJ executive Eiji Maeda also told Reuters that last week's "surprisingly big" upgrade in its price forecasts meant inflation is already on course to sustainably hit its target.

© Reuters. Staff members of Bank of Japan walk between the BOJ headquarters buildings in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

"There's a chance the BOJ could end negative rates as early as January next year, if it judges that inflationary pressure is heightening," he said.

The BOJ remains a dovish outlier amid a global wave of aggressive policy tightening by central banks on the view the recent cost-push inflation must be replaced by a demand-driven price rise before it can phase out stimulus.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.