🔥 Premium AI-powered Stock Picks from InvestingPro Now up to 50% OffCLAIM SALE

Bank of England may need to keep rates higher for longer, IMF says

Published 07/11/2023, 07:28 AM
Updated 07/11/2023, 07:46 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO-A London bus passes by the Bank of England building, in London, Britain November 3, 2022. REUTERS/Toby Melville/file photo

By David Milliken

LONDON (Reuters) -The Bank of England may have to keep interest rates high for an extended period if inflation pressures persist, and it was right to raise them by half a percentage point last month, the International Monetary Fund's directors said on Tuesday.

British inflation was the highest of any major economy in May at 8.7%, and financial markets have priced in increasingly high peaks for BoE rates as wage and price data have come in hotter than expected in recent months.

Markets see a roughly 50% chance that BoE rates will peak at 6.5% early next year, up from 5% now - a greater degree of tightening than is expected for the U.S. Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank.

"A continuous review of the pace and magnitude of monetary tightening is warranted," IMF directors said after an annual review of Britain's economy.

"Should inflationary pressures show signs of further persistence, the policy rate may have to be raised further and would need to remain higher for longer to durably lower inflation and keep inflation expectations anchored."

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey on Monday vowed to "see the job through" on returning inflation to its 2% target.

The IMF's latest comment is similar to language by staff in a preliminary version of its annual report on the British economy in May.

The agency also repeated the forecast it made in May that Britain would avoid recession this year and that the economy would grow by 0.4%.

Inflation will slow to "around 5.25%" by the end of the year, it said. May's forecast said inflation at the end of 2023 would be "around 5%". Both forecasts suggested inflation would be below the BoE's 2% target by the middle of 2025.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO-A London bus passes by the Bank of England building, in London, Britain November 3, 2022. REUTERS/Toby Melville/file photo

The IMF's directors discouraged finance minister Jeremy Hunt from spending any unexpected fiscal windfalls.

Instead, Britain should raise more money over the medium term from carbon and property taxes, and by removing loopholes in wealth and income taxation, in order to fund public services better and stop government debt rising, they said.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.