The upcoming August jobs report is set to play a critical role in determining the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rate cuts, according to analysts at Bank of America in a note Tuesday.
The bank expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 200,000, above the consensus, and the unemployment rate to dip to 4.2%. BofA views this data as a key factor in shaping the Fed's monetary policy.
"The August jobs data would be pivotal for the speed of Fed cuts in the near term. Broadly, we see three paths for Fed policy," said BofA.
In the first scenario, a robust jobs report would reduce recession concerns and lead to "hawkish cuts," with the Fed likely implementing just 25 basis points (bp) of cuts per quarter, starting in September.
BofA believes this could surprise markets, which are currently pricing in around 100bp of cuts.
The second scenario involves a more moderate report, with payrolls rising by 100,000 to 150,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%.
"In our view, a report like this would 'neither confirm nor deny' a recession, though it would suggest that the triggering of the Sahm Rule wasn't just a blip," writes BofA. "We think the Fed would respond by shifting its base case to 25bp cuts at every remaining meeting this year. The dot plot might also show more than 100bp of cuts next year. But a 50bp cut in September wouldn't yet be on the table, in our view."
In the third and most concerning scenario, a weak jobs report—such as payroll growth below 50,000 or a further rise in unemployment—would heighten recession fears.
BofA suggests that the Fed could respond aggressively with 50bp cuts in September, November, and December.
Ultimately, as BofA notes, "details matter," and the Fed will consider the totality of the data when making its decisions.