💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueLearn More

Dollar gains after US jobless claims fall more than expected

Published 08/07/2024, 09:31 PM
Updated 08/08/2024, 03:26 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Examples of Japanese yen banknotes are displayed at a media event about a new series of banknotes scheduled to be introduced in 2024, in Tokyo, Japan, November 21, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo
EUR/USD
-
GBP/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
AUD/USD
-
NZD/USD
-
DXY
-

By Hannah Lang

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Thursday after new U.S. labor market data showed that unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, easing fears of an imminent recession.

The greenback's rise was most prominent against the yen, following a sharp drop the day before in a volatile week in which investors have had to digest the unwinding of popular carry trades and how Japanese monetary policy might evolve.

Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday, suggesting fears that the labor market is unraveling were overblown.

The yen was last down 0.37% at 147.205, having slid 1.6% on Wednesday, after the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida played down the chance of a near-term hike in interest rates that would typically boost the currency.

The sharp moves in the yen pushed the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, including the yen, to a weekly high, before backing off. It was last up to 103.21, above Monday's seven-month low of 102.15.

Still, market participants were bracing for more volatility.

"Regardless of the fact that risk is a bit higher today, the degree of these swings that we're having on a seemingly daily basis, or at least every other day, I don't think is a healthy sign," said Eugene Epstein, head of structured products, North America, at Moneycorp.

The yen started the week by scaling a seven-month high of 141.675 per dollar, a far cry from the 38-year lows where it traded in early July, after soft U.S. jobs data last week stoked recession worries and roiled investors.

A surprise rate hike from the BOJ last week also forced investors to bail out of carry trades, in which they borrow the yen at low rates to invest in dollar-priced assets for higher returns. This unwinding gave the yen a boost.

A summary of opinions voiced at the BOJ's July policy meeting showed on Thursday that some board members cited a need to keep raising interest rates, with one saying they should eventually be increased to at least around 1%.

The contrasting opinions from the summary and Uchida on whether the BOJ will continue to raise rates, or pause as a result of market volatility, underscores the delicate task facing the central bank and will likely keep investors skittish.

"As the market pulls back from the edge of the brink ... U.S. interest rates have firmed up, and I think this is going to give the dollar/yen a little bit more of a lift," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

Some analysts believe this unwinding in the carry trade may have further to run, and is possibly only halfway there, which could add to volatility.

Even if the U.S. Federal Reserve does deliver a steep rate cut, as most traders are expecting in September, and the BOJ another increase, there would still be an incentive to use the yen to fund other trades.

The Swiss franc, another currency that was used to fund carry trades and that benefited from the unwinding momentum earlier this week, was down 0.47% at 0.866 per dollar, after dropping more than 1% on Wednesday.

The euro was down 0.05% at $1.0917, while sterling was up 0.48% at $1.275.

Investor focus will now be on the U.S. consumer price inflation report for July due next week, as well as comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 22-24.

"Investors need to brace for a bumpy ride," said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration taken February 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/Illustration/File Photo

The Australian dollar rose 1.12% to $0.659, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.25% at $0.601. [AUD/]

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 7.6% to $59,334.95, rebounding after falling below the $50,000 mark on Monday. Ether was last up 9.72% to $2,577.70.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.