LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar extended its slide while crude prices curtailed their losses after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he would tariff and tax countries to enrich Americans, overhaul the trade system and declare a national energy emergency.
COMMENTS:
RICK MECKLER, PARTNER, CHERRY LANE INVESTMENTS, NEW VERNON, NEW JERSEY
"The biggest reaction is what appears to be the delay on the tariffs. Of all the proposals that are being put forward, that was the one that was most likely to affect the market more dramatically both for its inflationary-potential and just for whatever retribution that would have been for it."
"When you say you're going to study and try to negotiate it after you said that you will do it on Day 1, I think that's encouraging for the market."
"I also think that the market's view is that a lot of the proposals of the Trump team are aspirational. They may not necessarily implement them or they will implement them slowly. But they did help him get elected. And also some of the proposals need development. The new team is just in place and so the idea of doing it on Day 1 was not realy realistic. So that's why the market is a little relieved on that."
MATT GERTKEN, CHIEF GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST, BCA RESEARCH (Research Note)
"We expect significant tariffs early in his administration, whether this week or in the coming three months, since the U.S. labor market is strong and the midterm elections are far away. Weak global manufacturing also gives Trump the advantage.. Later the ability to ratchet up trade pressure will decline and Trump will risk losing the historic opportunity he has to remake US trade relationships."
EUGENE EPSTEIN, HEAD OF TRADING AND STRUCTURED PRODUCTS, NORTH AMERICA, MONEYCORP NE,W JERSEY
"There are so many people surprised in some ways of how things are shaping up even though the playbook that Trump basically runs is exactly the same as the first four years. He uses tariffs as a negotiating tool. It seems like he will impose tariffs regardless. The question is how severe. He has a lot of flexibility though in how he can impose them."
"In terms of the dollar reaction, it certainly weakened a bit today, but utimately, the dollar has strengthened substantially and I think today's action changes the playbook for the forseeable future. Just because he did not sign sweeping tariffs on day one doesn't mean that that's not going to happen. Everybody is on the negotiating table."
"As far as position-taking goes, it's very important to stay calm and cautious. This is just the first day and there really have not been been much answers just yet. Just because he hasn't announced sweeping tariffs the first day, it means absolutely nothing in terms of long-term tariff policies. Trade policies with specific numbers, even for him, will probably have to have some semblance of official negotiations before making a decision."
ZACHARY GRIFFITHS, SENIOR INVESTMENT GRADE STRATEGIST, CREDITSIGHTS, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA
"The rally in the dollar and equity futures was due to expectations that Trump will..not be putting direct tariffs on any country today. That seems to be a relief trade."
"But if you look at what Trump said in his speech, it looks like he's quite firm on tariffs. I think there's more to come there."
"In terms of opting to not impose tariffs today and that being a market-positive, I'm a little skeptical of that and I am not sure that holds. If you have a more gradual, but still large tariffs in terms of percentage on a broad swath of countries, and if that is rolled out over time, that could be more challenging from an inflation-perspective for the Fed and could even result in policy being tighter for longer."
JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP
"Energy prices are going to come down in big way — consumers will rejoice in the savings and the inflation data in 6-7 months is going to look far better."
NIGEL GREEN, CEO, DEVERE GROUP
"The energy sector will undoubtedly be the most immediate beneficiary of this sweeping policy shift."
"Companies involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, and infrastructure stand to gain as regulatory barriers are dismantled and investment in domestic production soars. Shares of U.S. energy giants and mid-cap firms are likely poised for significant upward momentum as the markets price in increased output and profitability."
"Global oil prices, already sensitive to geopolitical developments, could see sharp adjustments."
GABRIELA SILLER PAGAZA, DIRECTOR FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, GRUPO FINANCIERO BASE
"At the beginning of Trump's speech, the (Mexican peso) exchange rate was at 20.5751...At the end of the speech, it fell to 20.5289 pesos per dollar, which implies an appreciation of 4.6 cents or 0.22%, since there was no announcement of tariffs."
MARC CHANDLER, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, BANNOCKBURN GLOBAL FOREX, NEW YORK
"There is a relief rally in foreign currencies, right now."
"Even though Trump did not specify, it's very clear that when he says that the U.S. is going to be a big auto manufacturer, he's talking about tariffs. So whether he imposes them in Day 1 or Day 5 or Day 10, I'm not sure it makes that much of a difference."
"The idea that he is going to be able to raise $2 trillion in tariffs seems to be an exaggeration. The U.S. imports only $1 trillion of goods, so what does he mean that he will be able raise $2 trillion and over what time period? It doesn't make sense."