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Forex - Weekly outlook: August 20 - 24

Published 08/19/2012, 04:39 AM
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week at a five-week high against the yen on Friday and gained ground against the other major currencies in thin trade, as upbeat economic data saw investors trim back expectations for another round of easing by the Federal Reserve.

Data on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for August hit its highest level in three months, coming in at 73.6 from 72.3 in July and outstripping forecasts for a reading of 72.4.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board reported that its index of leading indicators rose more-than-expected in July.

The data came after better-than-expected U.S. retail sales and industrial production data earlier in the week tempered expectations for another round of quantitative easing by the U.S. central bank.

The euro turned lower against the dollar and pulled back from a six-week high against the yen on Friday, after rising on Thursday, following supportive comments by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Chancellor Merkel said Germany was “in line” with the European Central Bank on defending the single currency, fuelling expectations that the central bank will soon act to lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.

The pound also turned lower against the dollar on Friday, after rising earlier in the session, as a string of better-than-forecast data earlier in the week fuelled hopes that the U.K. economy is not as weak as was feared.

Data on Thursday showed that U.K. retail sales rose more-than-expected in July, while the previous months figure was revised up significantly. In addition, the minutes of the Bank of England’s August meeting showed that policymakers voted unanimously to keep monetary policy unchanged.

The Australian dollar fell to a three-week low against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as traders sold the currency to lock in gains, while speculation over further possible rate cuts also weighed.

In the week ahead, market participants will be awaiting Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserves August meeting for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy. The U.S. is also to release closely watched reports on the housing sector and manufacturing production.

Elsewhere, the euro zone is to release monthly data on manufacturing and service sector activity, the Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the minutes of its most recent policy meeting and the U.K. is to produce revised data on second quarter growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 20

The U.K. is to release industry data on house price inflation, a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health.  

Tuesday, August 21

The RBA is to produce the minutes of its August policy meeting. The report will be closely watched for indications on the central bank’s future monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to publish data on inflation expectations.

Elsewhere, the U.K. is to release official data on public sector net borrowing, followed by industry data on industrial order expectations, a key gauge of economic health.

Later in the day, Canada is to produce official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.   

Wednesday, August 22

Japan is to produce government data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods, while Australia is publish its index of leading economic indicators.

Canada is to publish official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to produce the minutes of its August policy meeting, amid growing speculation over whether the U.S. central bank will soon announce a third round of quantitative easing. The U.S. is also to release government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, August 23

The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector growth, while France and Germany are also to release individual reports.

The U.K. is to publish industry data on mortgage approvals, a leading indicator of housing market demand, as well as industry data on retail sales.

Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland is to release official data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is to release its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, followed by preliminary data on manufacturing activity and official data on new home sales, a key gauge of economic health.

Friday, August 24

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to testify before the Standing Committee on Economics, in Canberra. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s is to release a report on Australia’s index of leading economic indicators.

Elsewhere, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa is due to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

The U.K. is to release revised second-quarter gross domestic product data, followed by a preliminary report on business investment, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on durable goods orders, a key indicator of manufacturing production.


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