Selloff or Market Correction? Either Way, Here's What to Do NextSee Overvalued Stocks

Sterling finds footing after hitting six-month low on Trump victory

Published 11/18/2024, 05:06 AM
Updated 11/18/2024, 05:10 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 6, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
GBP/USD
-
EUR/GBP
-
DXY
-

By Harry Robertson

LONDON (Reuters) - The pound held steady on Monday after falling to a six-month low the previous week as the dollar surged on the back of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election.

Sterling was last up 0.1% at $1.2627, from $1.2598 on Friday, its lowest since mid-May.

Trump's Nov. 5 election win has caused the dollar index to surge around 3% as investors bet trade tariffs and lower taxes will boost growth and inflation, leading to fewer Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Those expectations have caused Treasury yields to rise sharply, lifting the dollar as U.S. bonds become more attractive.

Sterling has fallen around 2.7% since the election although it has fared better than the euro, which many traders think will bear the brunt of higher U.S. tariffs which are likely to focus on China, the European Union and Mexico.

"Recent sterling weakness has principally been a story of U.S. dollar strength," said Matthew Amis, investment director at asset manager abrdn.

"From the GBP (pound) perspective, we see little reason for the recent slide to recorrect," he said. "The Bank of England may well be continuing to signal gradual cuts, but the UK growth story will need to be more compelling for markets to shift."

Data on Friday showed the UK economy contracted unexpectedly in September and growth slowed to just 0.1% over the third quarter, driving a sixth day of losses for the pound.

Traders see a roughly 80% chance the Bank of England will cut rates again next month, and see rates falling by around 65 basis points to just above 4% by the end of next year. The BoE rate is currently 4.75%.

The relatively slow pace of expected cuts has supported the pound this year, which is down 0.8% against the dollar in 2024, compared to a 4.3% drop in the euro.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 6, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The euro fell to a 2-1/2 year low against the pound of 82.62 pence early last week as investors bet Trump's tariffs would be worse for the euro zone than Britain.

It was last up 0.23% at 83.70 pence, after also rising on Friday in the wake of the weak British data.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.