💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

Bank of Korea opens door to rate cuts as growth risks trump inflation

Published 08/21/2024, 09:00 PM
Updated 08/22/2024, 12:45 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Bank of Korea is seen on the top of its building in Seoul, South Korea, March 8, 2016. Picture taken on March 8, 2016.  REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo

By Cynthia Kim and Jihoon Lee

SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea's central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday but revived expectations for an imminent policy easing that some economists see happening as soon as October as growth concerns overshadow inflation worries.

The Bank of Korea (BOK) held the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% in a unanimous decision, an outcome expected by 38 out of 40 economists surveyed by Reuters.

Governor Rhee Chang-yong, however, said four of the bank's seven voting members were open to a rate cut within the next three months.

In its decision statement, the BOK said the bank now needs to "examine the proper timing of rate cuts while maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance."

With price pressures cooling and the recovery grinding to a halt in the second quarter, economists expect the BOK to step back from policy aimed at cooling demand.

That could mean cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting on Oct. 11, around the same time the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver its first rate cut in four years.

"Looking at inflation alone, we are heading towards the right conditions for interest rate cuts," Rhee said in a news conference.

South Korea's three-year treasury bond futures extended gains after Rhee's news conference on expectations interest rates will now come down.

"It was neutral-to-dovish," said Paik Yoon-min, an analyst at Kyobo Securities, who sees a cut in October.

"Markets were expecting about three board members would be open to a near-term rate cut but there were more. Rhee made it clear that inflation and economic conditions warrant a cut, to make financial stability concerns the main reason for a hold today."

The BOK also downgraded forecasts for both growth and inflation this year.

It cut 2024 growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.5% previously, after Asia's fourth-largest economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter. It now sees consumer inflation at 2.5% for this year, slower than 2.6% seen previously.

The prospects of an October cut come as the BOK's global peers unwind the aggressive policy tightening of recent years with central banks in Canada, New Zealand and the euro zone having all loosened monetary settings.

While worries about slowing consumption are now replacing concerns about inflation, concerns about financial stability and household debt continue to shape policy deliberations in South Korea.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Bank of Korea is seen on the top of its building in Seoul, South Korea, March 8, 2016. Picture taken on March 8, 2016.  REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo

Rising apartment prices in Seoul took centre stage earlier this month with the government announcing plans to increase housing supply to cool surging prices.

"Board members made it clear that they are not going to excessively inject liquidity into the market that could spur real estate price increases," Rhee said, adding that borrowing rules need to be further tightened to slow household debt increases.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.