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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: June 21-25

Published 06/20/2010, 11:54 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com – The euro extended its rally against the greenback last week, hitting a 3-week high in the wake of weak U.S. economic data and as fears over the euro zone sovereign debt crisis gave way to increased risk appetite.

EUR/USD hit 1.2416 on Friday, the pair’s highest since May 28, it subsequently reached 1.2384 at close of trade, gaining 2.14% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2115, the low of June 14, and resistance at 1.2562, the high of May 25.

Next week, the European Union is due to publish reports on the euro zone's manufacturing and services sectors, as well as data on industrial new orders.

A research group is slated to publish a key survey of business sentiment in German, and the European Central Bank president, Jean-Claude Trichet, is scheduled to speak.

Meanwhile, the United States is due to publish key data on unemployment claims, durable goods orders and the housing market. The Federal Reserve is also scheduled to make a key interest rate decision, which will be relayed in a heavily anticipated statement.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect EUR/USD.

Monday, June 21

The president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet is due to testify before the European Parliament in Brussels. Traders will likely scrutinize his comments for clues to future shifts in monetary policy.

Tuesday, June 22


The Ifo research group is due to publish a key report on German business sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health. The EU will then publish a report on the euro zone’s current account, the difference in value between imported and exported goods, income flows, services and unilateral transfers.

Also Tuesday, the EU will release a survey of consumer confidence in the euro zone.
 
Later in the day, an industry group will release key data on existing U.S. home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, June 23

The EU will publish purchasing managers' indexes for its manufacturing and services sectors; the indexes are important signals of economic health, purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy. Germany and France will also release separate PMI data for their manufacturing and services sectors.

Meanwhile, the market research group Gfk will publish a survey of German consumer sentiment.

The U.S., meanwhile, will release a report on new home sales, a key signal of the condition of the housing market and of the country's overall economic health.

Also Wednesday, the Fed will announce a decision on its benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds Rate. The Federal Open Market Committee will relay the decision in a statement that includes important commentary on the U.S. economic outlook.

Thursday, June 24

France will publish monthly data on consumer spending, and the EU will release a report on industrial new orders, a leading indicator of production. Italy will publish data on retail sales and quarterly unemployment figures.

Meanwhile, the U.S. will publish key data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production. Later in the day, the U.S. will release data on initial jobless claims, a key indicator of overall economic health.

Friday, June 25

Germany is due to release an import price index, which measures the change in the price of imported goods purchased domestically. The monthly report is seen as a useful indicator of inflation.

Also Friday, the U.S. is to publish key quarterly GDP data. Later in the day, the University of Michigan will release the results of surveys on U.S. consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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