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Nikkei rises 0.9 pct; awaits BOJ policy review

Published 10/03/2010, 11:04 PM
Updated 10/03/2010, 11:08 PM
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* Gains pick up above 9,480 where shorts accumulated -analyst

* BOJ easing expected, market wants to see details -analyst

* Expected easing, yen intervention limit falls -analysts

* Support near 9,370, 13-wk moving average, retracement level

By Aiko Hayashi

TOKYO, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei rose 0.9 percent in choppy trade on Monday, taking its cues from the currency markets ahead of a Bank of Japan policy decision the next day with the market expecting further easing, albeit a minor move.

Former BOJ Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said on Friday the central bank may ease policy as inaction would run the risk of spurring further yen gains, given the prospects for easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The policy move expected most by economists polled by Reuters was yet another expansion of a cheap fund-supply tool that the BOJ set up in December and expanded in March and August.

"The market took heart from the currency market where short-covering in dollar/yen picked up speed as markets expect that the BOJ will ease policy further," said Hiroaki Kuramochi, chief equity marketing officer at Tokai Tokyo Securities.

"Nervous trade will likely continue this week, even after tomorrow's event, as U.S. jobs data is also set to be released later in the week."

By the midday break, the benchmark Nikkei had gained 81.84 points to 9,486.07, after moving in and out of negative territory in early morning trade. The broader Topix added 0.3 percent to 832.77.

Kuramochi said a foreign hedge fund had recently placed large short positions around 9,480 and the Nikkei's gains picked up speed after the index rose above that level. He added that moves were led by trade in futures.

On Friday, the Nikkei rose 0.4 percent, boosted by short-covering, starting the new quarter on an upbeat note after September marked its best month since March.

In Asia trade, the dollar traded at 83.78 yen, having twice found support at 83.15/16 last week, above its 15-year low of 82.87 yen set just before Japan intervened for the first time in six years on Sept. 15.

"The market has largely factored in the possibility of further easing at the meeting, but at this point it needs to see the actual content of the decision," said Masayuki Otani, chief market analyst at Securities Japan, Inc.

"With the yen staying on the strong side, investors are also waiting to see if there will be another round of intervention. If the BOJ eases and this is combined with intervention, that could have a bigger impact."

Market players see solid support for the Nikkei around 9,370, near its 13-week moving average. The 38.2 percent retracement of the Nikkei's move from 8,796 to the peak of its September rally at 9,704 also falls near that level.

Further support is expected around 9,350 yen, the Nikkei's 55-day moving average. One analyst said the 25-day moving average, which has been steadily moving upward and is now at 9,311, is another point of support for the index.

Resistance likely looms around 9,530, the upper level of the Nikkei's daily Ichimoku cloud on charts.

Wall Street rose on Friday, led by gains in resource stocks after data in China showed a pick-up in manufacturing activity.

SUMITOMO METAL JUMPS, DAIKIN FALLS

Exporters rose, with Sony Corp up 2 percent at 2,588 yen and Kyocera Corp advancing 2 percent to 8,160 yen.

Sumitomo Metal Mining shares climbed 2.9 percent to 1,312 yen after a jump in metals prices, with gold near a record high hit on Friday and copper prices at a two-year high.

Shinsei Bank rose 1.7 percent to 59 yen after Credit Suisse raised its rating on the lender to "outperform" from "neutral".

Credit Suisse said it had raised its forecasts to reflect Shinsei's amended medium-term business plan released last week, which included steps to cut expenses and lower credit costs.

But Daikin Industries slid 2.4 percent to 3,040 yen after the air conditioner maker said its first-half net profit would likely be 74 percent lower than its previous forecast due to losses on its stocking holdings. (Additional reporting by Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar in Sydney; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

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