By Cassandra Garrison and Diego Oré
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - President Claudia Sheinbaum will present her strategy for confronting Mexico's dire security situation on Tuesday amid a backdrop of high-profile violence including the brutal murder of a local mayor on Sunday that shocked the country.
Sheinbaum, inaugurated as Mexico's first woman president less than a week ago, is expected to unveil a policy that prioritizes reestablishing law and order in the most deadly areas plagued by violence linked to drug cartels and organized crime.
Her highly anticipated security plan comes as Mexico reels from the murder of Alejandro Arcos, the mayor of Chilpancingo, the capital of Mexico's violence-plagued state of Guerrero, who was killed just six days after taking office. Photos circulated on messaging app WhatsApp and in Mexican media outlets on Sunday depicting a severed head on top of a pick-up truck, appearing to be that of Arcos.
The first phase of Sheinbaum's plan aims to reduce homicides and other serious crime in 10 areas that make up at least a quarter of homicides linked to organized crime, including the dangerous cities of Colima, Tijuana, Acapulco and Celaya, according to a member of Sheinbaum's security cabinet who declined to be identified due to not being authorized to speak publicly on the matter.
The southern state of Chiapas, a migration corridor and site of infighting between powerful cartels, will also be targeted for permanent security operations and welfare programs aimed at promoting peace, the official said.
It could be a strategic opportunity for Sheinbaum to differentiate herself from her predecessor and mentor, former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who was criticized for his "hugs not bullets" strategy, which opponents say allowed criminal groups to expand and strengthen.
The murder of Arcos was under investigation to find out the motive and make the "corresponding arrests," Sheinbaum said in her regular morning news conference on Monday. She added her security plan would include better coordination with state governors and attorneys general offices. Sending the National Guard to the area was a possibility, she said.
Mexico is exceptionally deadly for political candidates and officials, who are routinely targeted by organized crime. The country's most recent elections, in which Sheinbaum won the presidency, were the bloodiest in the country's modern history with 37 candidates assassinated leading up to the June 2 vote, several in brazen acts of public violence.
These killings, and most other homicides in Mexico, rarely result in arrests and successful prosecutions.
"There's an issue with impunity in Mexico, and until that goes away, until those institutions are stronger, you're just not going to be able to guarantee safety of candidates," said Mike Ballard, director of intelligence at international security firm Global Guardian.
Mexico's new government will need to actively arrest and prosecute more top cartel officials if it hopes to truly stem the power of these groups, Ballard said. He pointed to the U.S. mafia and how its grip on society gradually dwindled after a series of arrests, convictions and lengthy prison sentences in the 1980s and 1990s.
Mexico, however, has thus far struggled to implement a sweeping crackdown, as a lack of resources combined with corruption in the police and military derail attempts.
Much of Mexican law enforcement is done at the state level, with homicide considered a state crime, and Sheinbaum plans to work with states to improve and restructure their police forces and public prosecutors' offices, the source said.
The new government's strategy will require a major budget allocation, according to public security consultant David Saucedo, who estimated security spending would need to be at least doubled from the current 6% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Sheinbaum will also need to tread lightly on the rollout of her plan, as past high-profile arrests of drug lords have led to an aftermath of extreme violence, complicating the Mexican government's ability to launch operations without provoking a deadly backlash.
For example, legendary Sinaloa trafficker and cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada was arrested in the United States in July, triggering an ongoing conflict in the capital Culiacan between the two most powerful factions of the Sinaloa Cartel with regular violence that has killed more than 150 people.
The chaos has prompted citizen protests demanding public officials do more to guarantee their safety.
"Here we see that organized crime is above the government. It is controlling the government and not the government controlling crime," said Froylan Gallegos Jimenez as he protested in Culiacan.