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UPDATE 3-Japan real exports edge up, momentum may slow

Published 10/22/2009, 02:59 AM
TTEF
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* Real exports up 5.4 pct, nominal exports down 0.8 pct

* Trade surplus recovers to pre-Lehman level

* Brisk shipments to Asia support export recovery

* Recovery in shipments to United States remains slow (Recasts with real exports)

By Rie Ishiguro

TOKYO, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Japan's real exports grew in September thanks to robust demand from Asia, while the country's trade surplus climbed to its highest level since the global crisis.

Although the pace of recovery in exports is likely to slow in coming months, economists expect exports to stay on a recovery track, boding well for Japan's economy, which relies heavily on overseas markets for its goods.

Nominal exports fell slightly on the yen's rise, however, and analysts say more strengthening in the currency could hurt manufacturers who are still smarting from a sharp slide in demand worldwide.

"The environment for exports seems to be stronger than we had expected, reducing the chances of the Japanese economy hitting a second dip. But the pace of export recovery will likely slow down after the effect of stimulus fades," said Shuichi Obata, senior economist economist at Nomura Securities.

Real exports rose 5.4 percent from the previous month in September, Bank of Japan figures showed.

Exports fell a seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent in September from the previous month, marking the third straight decline, the Finance Ministry said on Thursday. The ministry's seasonally adjusted figures do not exclude the effect of currency swings.

Compared with a year ago, Japan's exports fell 30.7 percent in September, slightly worse than a median market forecast for a 29.9 percent decline.

Exports have been recovering for several months after a precipitous fall earlier this year, helping Japan rebound in April-June from its deepest recession since World War Two.

Reviving demand in Asia and emerging economies has led the recovery in Japan's exports so far, and this trend became clearer in September, benefiting shipments of Japanese-made automobiles, steel and electronic parts such as semiconductors, according to an official of the Ministry of Finance.

Overall exports, as a result, hit the highest this year and were up 46 percent from the start of the year, while the degree of year-to-year fall narrowed to the smallest so far this year.

But some economists fret that there won't be enough demand from the United States to pick up the slack as the impact of stimulus spending around Asia fades.

Exports to Asia, which account for more than a half of Japan's total exports, fell 22.2 percent in September from a year ago, while those to the United States fell 34.1 percent.

An export recovery has been a catalyst for the rebound in Japan's industrial production during the past several months, but gains slowed in August and many firms that count on overseas demand expect to cut output in the future.

The Bank of Japan upgraded its economic assessment for the second month in a row in October, saying the economy has started to recover, but many analysts say the recovery may slow down early next year as the effect of stimulus spending fades.

The yen's recent rise is hurting Japanese exporters, too. The yen's real trade-weighted effective exchange rate compiled by the Bank of Japan strengthened 3.1 percent in September from August.

The yen traded at 90.98 yen per dollar on Thursday, not far from an 8-1/2-month high hit earlier this month.

The economy is likely to be overshadowed by soft domestic consumption after many manufacturers slashed jobs to cope with unprecedented declines in their global sales.

Japan's jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 5.5 percent in August from a record 5.7 percent the preceding month, but analysts are still not sure whether the worst is over. (Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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