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Global Market Outlook: Up And Down Asian Session

Published 12/31/2000, 07:00 PM
Updated 10/26/2009, 02:16 AM
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Global Market Outlook:

Up And Down Asian Session

Equity Futures: Dow +9.00. S&P +1.00. NASDAQ +2.75. Japanese Nikkei +20.00. German Dax +3.00

Asian markets opened the first session of the week mixed, with the Japanese Nikkei index advancing 0.60%, but the Australian S&P/Asx shedding 0.55%. The most important event during the Asian sessions was Korea’s GDP numbers, which showed that the economy expanded 2.9% in Q3 compared to the prior quarter. This gave a strong push forward to the Korean stock market, with the KOSPI index jumping almost 1%.

S&P futures had a flat Asian session, moving just a few basis points since the day had started. Following Friday’s sell-off, S&P futures are trading just above the 1075.00 support area, the same place where the market had bottomed during the last two weeks. 

TheLFB Charting LinkS&P Futures Technical View: TheLFB Member Charts
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1080-1100. Looking for: Wave 5 or C top

The price structure on the daily chart is showing two valid scenarios. On the left side of the chart below, it shows an impulse structure with five waves up from the 665 lows to the current highs. If this is the case, the wave 4 discussed on the weekly chart, above, will be rejected, since the fourth wave is a corrective wave, which means it cannot be sub-divided by a five wave move. However, in this scenario, a three wave push lower into a corrective blue wave 2, with a targets somewhere around 950 area is expected.

On the right side of the chart, we have a different picture, with a wave count that has a clear zig-zag correction, which is valid for a wave 4 scenario. In this case lower blue wave 5 will follow.

Overall, the current price structure signals for a coming turning point with at least three wave push lower over the coming weeks, since the market is trading around the top of wave 5 or wave C leg, with the shape of an expanding diagonal pattern.

Sector Moves: Japanese markets advanced after Toyota Industries, a subsidiary of Toyota Motors, managed to beat analysts’ estimations. This has lifted the carmaker and consumer sectors among the regions. Further gains in the carmaker sector came from South Korea, where Credit Suisse upgraded Kia Motors to “buy”

The basic materials companies lost some points during the Asian session, reflecting the activity from the energy market. Over the last month of trading, the basic materials sector was the best gainer in the global market.

Economic Moves: Producer prices from Australia have risen less than expected during the third quarter. According to a report released from the Australian Bureau of Statistics has shown that producer prices rose to 0.1 percent when the expectation was for a 0.3 percent increase. The report also showed that the rise was stunted because of higher electrical, water, and fuel costs which increased 12.1 percent during the third quarter.

Crude oil for November delivery was recently trading at $79.75 per barrel, down by $0.75. Crude oil lost a few points during the Asian session, as some investors ponder whether the current valuation does not reflect the state of the global economy. Crude oil dropped even if the dollar index weakened during the Asian session.

Gold for November delivery was recently trading lower by $0.40 to $1,056.00. 

TheLFB Charting LinkGold Technical View: TheLFB Member Charts
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1070. Looking for: Wave 3) top

On a daily gold chart, the market reached a new top recently around $1070 per ounce, where an extended red wave 3) should be completed soon.

The market is currently trading around a significant Fibonacci extension resistance area, where a move lower into the corrective wave 4) may follow over the coming days and weeks, towards the $1000 support zone.

The stochastic oscillator also signals for a move lower after the bearish cross in the over-bought area.

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