Investing.com -- The upcoming inflation data is expected to show further signs of slowing, Goldman Sachs estimates, and coupled with the recent surprise rise in the U.S. unemployment rate likely puts the Fed on further path toward a September rate cut.
"The recent news has increased our confidence that the Fed will cut in September," Goldman Sachs said in Monday note, pointing to a slew of recent economic reports including the recent labor market report and forecast for the June inflation report due Jul. 11 to show another gust of deflationary winds.
Analysts at the bank, forecast the consumer price index for June to rise just 0.21% in June, helped by drags from used cars and hotels prices, taking the 12-month rate to 3.4%. If the bank's forecast for a slowdown in June is realized that would not only mark a sign of further progress, but may likely "depress" the July print as well.
While quelling inflation appeared to be the only game in town for the Fed for months as the labor market flexed its muscles, the Fed's other mandate, maximum employment, is now starting to find its way onto the Fed's discussion table.
At the European Central Bank conference last week, Powell emphasized that there had been "'a lot of progress on inflation and that the FOMC now faces more two-sided risks to achieving its inflation and employment goals," Goldman Sachs said.
The latest labor market data seen last week showing signs of labor demand and supply coming into better balance is also expected to sway the Fed's hand on sooner cuts. The monthly nonfarm payroll report in June showed an unexpected rise in unemployment to a two-year high, and payrolls gained 206,000, though that was largely overshadowed by the downward revisions to April's and May payrolls, lowering the three-month average pace to 177,000 from 249,000 in May, Goldmans added.
Further clues on the how the recent signs of slowing in the labor market may have impacted the Fed's thinking on monetary policy may come as soon as Tuesday, when Powell is due to deliver his annual two-day testimony before Congress.