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Italian growth to be weaker than government targets, IMF and business lobby say

Published 10/22/2024, 11:01 AM
Updated 10/22/2024, 11:16 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Brunelleschi's Dome and Giotto's Campanile of the Cathedral of Saint Mary of the Flower (Cattedrale di Santa Maria del Fiore) are pictured from a panoramic point of Florence, in Tuscany region, Italy, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Yara Nardi/File Ph

MILAN (Reuters) -Italy's economic growth this year and next will be weaker than the government's targets of 1% and 1.2% respectively, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the country's main business lobby said on Tuesday. 

The euro zone third-largest economy will expand by 0.7% in 2024, in line with last year's rate, the IMF said in its "World Economic Outlook", unchanged from its previous estimate in July.

It forecast next year's growth at 0.8%, marginally down from 0.9% previously projected.

Business lobby Confindustria issued similar forecasts of 0.8% this year and 0.9% in 2025, with both bodies implicitly indicating that the expansionary measures in Rome's 2025 budget presented this month will not boost the economy as intended.

Giorgia Meloni's government said that tax cuts and extra spending in the budget would raise next year's growth to 1.2% from a 0.9% projection under an unchanged policy scenario. 

Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti acknowledged this month that this year's growth target may be out of reach after downward revisions to the first two quarters made by national statistics bureau ISTAT.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Brunelleschi's Dome and Giotto's Campanile of the Cathedral of Saint Mary of the Flower (Cattedrale di Santa Maria del Fiore) are pictured from a panoramic point of Florence, in Tuscany region, Italy, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Yara Nardi/File Photo

The statistics office said so-called "acquired growth" at the end of the second quarter stood at 0.4%, down from the 0.6% estimated prior to the revisions.

The IMF and Confindustria are the latest groups to recently issue growth forecasts below those of the government, following the Bank of Italy and the parliamentary budget watchdog UPB.

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