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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: July 9 - 13

Published 07/08/2012, 07:06 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell against the yen on Friday, erasing the week’s gains, as safe haven demand was boosted by sustained global growth concerns, but the greenback remained supported as expectations for more easing by the Federal Reserve subsided.

USD/JPY hit 79.48 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since July 3; the pair subsequently consolidated at 79.64 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.25% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 79.21, the low of June 28 and resistance at 80.13, the high of May 22.

The greenback found support after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that the economy added 80,000 jobs in June, below market forecasts for a gain of around 90,000.

April figures were revised to 68,000 from 77,000 jobs, while May's numbers were revised to 77,000 from 69,000.

Although the data was weaker than expected, many investors said it was not bad enough to spur the U.S. central bank to launch a third round of quantitative easing.

The report also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 8.2% in June, in line with expectations.

But safe haven demand quickly took as concerns over global economic growth continued to dominate after a series of stimulus measures were announced by world central banks.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that the economic outlook faces downside risks, adding that indicators for the second quarter point to weakening growth in the euro zone.

Draghi refused to speculate, however, on the chances of a third round of Long Term Refinancing Operations, which provides cheap loans to European banks to encourage them to lend.

The comments came after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low 0.75% in July, in a bid to bolster faltering growth in the region.

In addition, Bank of England policymakers voted to increase the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves by GBP50 billion to GBP375 billion, in order to shield the recession hit U.K. economy from the ongoing debt crisis in the euro zone.

Elsewhere, China surprised traders by cutting interest rates for the second time in less than a month on Thursday, signaling that growth is slowing more than Beijing expected.

The yen’s gains were limited however, as investors turned to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement on Thursday, after BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said earlier in the week that the central bank will continue monetary easing.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching ECB President Draghi’s testimony before the European Parliament, on Monday, as well as a two-day meeting of euro zone finance ministers, amid expectations for a final agreement on aid for Spanish banks.

Markets will also be eyeing the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting as well as U.S. data on trade balance and unemployment claims.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 9

Japan is to publish government data on the country’s current account as well as on core machinery orders, a leading indicator of production.
Euro zone finance ministers are to meet in Brussels for a first day of talks.

Tuesday, July 10

Euro zone finance ministers are to hold a second day of talks in Brussels.

Wednesday, July 11

Japan is to release government data on tertiary industry activity, an important indicator of economic health.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release official data on trade balance and crude oil stockpiles, followed by the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy-setting meeting. The minutes will be closely watched for signs of future monetary policy decisions by the central bank.

Thursday, July 12

The BoJ is to release its monetary policy statement as well as the overnight call rate. The decisions will be followed by a press conference, which will be closely watched as investors expect the bank to implement further monetary easing measures to counter the effects of the strong yen.

The U.S. is to publish government data on unemployment claims and official data on import prices, followed by the monthly Treasury statement.

Friday, July 13

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on producer price inflation and a preliminary report by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.


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