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Market Wire Update:
The Next Forex Move
The answer to where the currency markets are, and where they could go, may be easier to see when weekly charts are compared against each of the major pairs, as well as against equity and commodity plays. Here is a comparison of where the current price action previous lead to. It cannot happen again, can it? Well, that was what we heard as traders back then. The current values are shown in bold.
EUR/USD: Feb 2008 euro went higher through 1.5000 and topped out at 1.6000 in Mar 2008
S&P: Oct 2008 futures went lower through 1100 and bottomed out at 665 in Mar 2009
GBP/USD: Oct 2008 cable dropped through 1.6700 and bottomed out at 1.3500 in January 2009
U.K. Equities: Oct 2008 FTSE market dropped through 5250 and bottomed out at 3450 in Mar 2009
AUD/USD: Aug 2008 aussie dropped through 0.9250 and bottomed out at 0.6000 in Oct 2008
Gold: Mar 2008 bullion dropped through 1030 and bottomed out at 680 in Oct 2008
USD/CAD: Sep 2007 cad dropped through 1.0440 and bottomed out at 0.9050 in Nov 2007
Oil: Oct 2008 crude dropped through 79.50 and bottomed out at 35.00 in Dec 2005
USD/CHF: Mar 2008 swissy went lower through 1.0050 and bottomed out at 0.9600 in the same month
German Equities: Sep 2008 DAX dropped through 5850 and bottomed out at at 3600 in Mar 2009
USD/JPY: Dec 2008 yen went lower through 91.00 and bottomed out at 87.00 in Dec 2007 (Low @ 79.00 Mar 1995)
Japanese Equities: Oct 2005 Nikkei dropped through 10,300 and bottomed out at 6800 in Mar 2009
The net result is that the current price points happen to be massive price action and swing point areas, and as such each asset will be looking to break, hold, and then use what is in front of them as resistance-turned-support areas.
The dollar index, a percentage mix of six major currencies against the dollar, has also hit a price point, 75.00, that it has not been seen since Feb 2008. At that time it moved lower to touch 70.68, an all-time low, on March 17 2008. If that date rings a bell, it was when the Federal Reserve stepped in to help Bear Stearns, in the first of the rescue package deals that have since become the norm.
It took positive equity markets and commodity trade to pull the dollar index higher to hit 90.00 in Nov 2008, and again in Mar 2009, with March being the time that the S&P hit the lows of 665. It has been all uphill since then for equities, and all downhill since then for the dollar.
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds protected their dollar holdings at these 75.00 levels in Nov 2007, and again in Sep 2008. With stability in interest rate markets now in place, and the removal of dollar liquidity with the global intention to reverse quantative easing programs in place, it seems unlikely that a move from 75.00 to 72.00 on the index, or the equivalent of a 10% increase in major pair dollar based vales, will easily happen.
If it does, it will be in choppy trade that is hard fought by overseas owners of Usd denominated assets used as reserves. Right now the failure of the U.S. administration to stand behind their publicly stated Strong Dollar Policy, is whipping up a frenzy of jawboning from those who are trying to control regional currency valuations, at the hands of a global Usd that dominates global transactions.
As seen in trade on Wednesday, the sessions that have weak equity moves are those that allow the dollar to get bought, however, the reversals are swift and violent the moment that stock buyers step into to reverse things. It seems that one of two things are going to happen;
Either the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury step up and jawbone the dollar higher with talk of economic expansion and internal growth. Or, the global market place looks for an alternative asset class the price global trade and commodities in.
Right now the Usd is entwined into the value of virtually every currency that is traded globally, because of the international trust that has been in place that the lender of last resort, the Fed, will honor the mountain of bills and notes that it is backing.
Trust, (or no alternative at the time that the gold standard was scrapped and the U.S. swapped gold for paper debt), that the owners of U.S. debt were forced to accept is now looking to be wearing thin as Wednesday looks to set up another push higher on regional currency values.
Global commodities are exchanged in dollars, as a way of limiting currency fluctuations in intra-day transactions, but it seems that the global market has tired of the excessive debt, and of internal U.S. policies, to the point that alternatives may have to be found.
Many seem to have forgotten the fact that without the Usd liquidity pumped into the global markets, whoever was to blame for the sub-prime and credit crisis, that the global traded market would have collapsed. The instigator of over-leveraged, low margin, global markets may have been the U.S., but few regions did not follow suit in regard to.
It has taken twelve months to get the liquidity out there, and will like take another twelve months to get in back in-house, and in that time, it may not come as a surprise to see the dollar index forced higher from tests below the 75.00 support area, and maybe it will not be the Fed and Treasury doing the pushing. The first steps in that move may come from the Beige Book response at 2pm on Wednesday.