(Reuters) -U.S. central bankers have kept their target for short-term borrowing costs in the 5.25%-5.50% range since last July, when they completed their 2022-2023 rate-hike campaign to combat soaring prices as global economies recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic recession.
Inflation and the labor market have both cooled appreciably since then, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell says policymakers think the time for cutting the policy rate is approaching.
When and by how much is a subject of intense speculation. Fed policymakers say the decision will be driven by the economic data. It will also undoubtedly be shaped by competing views among policymakers over how to interpret that data.
Here is a look at the latest comments from Fed policymakers, sorting them under the labels "dove" and "hawk" as a rough shorthand for their monetary policy leanings. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation.
The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more, click on the photos in this graphic.
For a breakdown of how Reuters' counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Adriana Jerome Powell, Fed Michelle
Kugler, Chair, permanent Bowman,
Governor, voter: “If we were Governor,
permanent to see inflation permanent
voter: "I'm moving down ... voter: "We need
cautiously more or less in to be patient
optimistic line with and avoid
that we're expectations, undermining
seeing growth remains continued
progress and reasonably strong, progress on
the type of and the labor lowering
progress that market remains inflation by
we need to get consistent with overreacting to
back to 2%" current conditions, any single data
inflation. then I think a rate point." Aug 10,
July 16, 2024 cut could be on the 2024
table at the
September meeting."
July 31, 2024
John Williams, New Thomas Barkin,
York Fed President, Richmond Fed
permanent President, 2024
voter: April to voter: "You've
June data "seems to got some time
be getting us in a healthy
closer to a economy to
disinflationary figure out
trend that we're whether this is
looking for. I an economy
would like to see that's gently
more data to gain moving into a
further normalizing
confidence." July state that will
17, 2024 allow you to,
in a steady
deliberate way,
normalize rates
or ... is this
one where you
really do have
to lean into
it.” Aug 8,
2024
Philip Jefferson,
Vice Chair: "It is Jeffrey Schmid,
too early to tell Kansas City Fed
whether the recent President, 2025
slowdown in the voter: "If
disinflationary inflation
process will be continues to
long-lasting. The come in low, my
better reading for confidence will
April is grow that we
encouraging." May are on track to
20, 2024 meet the price
stability part
of our mandate,
and it will be
appropriate to
adjust the
stance of
policy." Aug 8,
2024
Michael Barr, Vice Lorie Logan,
Chair of Dallas Fed
Supervision, President, 2026
permanent voter: voter: "We're
"We will need to going to need
allow our to see several
restrictive policy more months of
some further time that data to
to continue its really have
work." May 20, 2024 confidence in
our outlook
that we're
heading to 2%."
June 18, 2024
Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari,
Governor, permanent Minneapolis Fed
voter: "I believe President, 2026
the time to lower voter: "We're
the policy rate is in a very good
drawing closer." position right
July 17, 2024. now to take our
time, get more
inflation data,
get more data
on the economy,
on the labor
market, before
we have to make
any decisions.”
June 16, 2024
Lisa Cook,
Governor, permanent
voter: "We are very
attentive to what
is happening with
the unemployment
rate ... The
situation could
change very quickly
and we would be
responsive." July
10, 2024
Mary Daly, San
Francisco Fed
President, 2024
voter: "Our minds
are quite open to
adjusting the
policy rate in
coming meetings.”
Aug 5, 2024
Raphael
Bostic, Atlanta Fed
President, 2024
voter: "I'm open to
something happening
in terms of us
moving
before the fourth
quarter
." Aug
15, 2024
Alberto
Musalem, St. Louis
Fed President, 2025
voter: "It now
appears the balance
of risks on
inflation and
unemployment has
shifted ...
the
time may be nearing
when
an adjustment to
moderately
restrictive policy
may be
appropriate." Aug
15, 2024
Austan Goolsbee,
Chicago Fed
President, 2025
voter: "We're
tight...if we are
too tight for too
long, we're going
to have to come to
grips with what
that's going to do
to the real side of
the economy." Aug
8, 2024.
Susan Collins,
Boston Fed
President, 2025
voter: “If the data
continue the way
that I expect, I do
believe that it
will be appropriate
soon to begin
adjusting policy
and easing how
restrictive the
policy is.” Aug 9,
2024
Patrick Harker,
Philadelphia Fed
President, 2026
voter: "If all of
it happens to be as
forecasted, I think
one rate cut would
be appropriate by
year's end.” June
17, 2024
Notes: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July 2023. As of June 2024, seven policymakers were at the median forecast for one rate cut this year; eight policymakers thought two rate cuts this year would be appropriate; and four thought none would be. The June meeting was the last for Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who retired at the end of June; Beth Hammack, her successor, starts Aug. 21 and will vote at the Fed's September meeting. Neither is included in this dove-hawk matrix.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Sept '24 0 1 12 5 0
Apr/May; June; July '24 0 1 10 6 1
March '24 0 1 11 5 1
Jan '24 0 2 9 4 1
Dec '23 0 2 9 4 1
Oct/Nov '23 0 2 7 5 2
Sept '23 0 4 3 6 3
June '23 0 3 3 8 3
March '23 0 2 3 10 2
Dec '22 0 4 1 12 2