Selloff or Market Correction? Either Way, Here's What to Do NextSee Overvalued Stocks

ECB governors back more rate cuts if inflation settles at goal

Published 12/13/2024, 02:31 AM
Updated 12/13/2024, 06:41 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau looks on during the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 16, 2024. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Four European Central Bank policymakers backed further interest rate cuts on Friday provided that inflation settles at the ECB's 2% goal as expected.

The euro zone's central bank cut interest rates for the fourth time this year on Thursday and kept the door open to more easing, although some analysts felt President Christine Lagarde's signal in that direction was less clear than they had hoped for.

French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau, his Spanish colleague Jose Luis Escriva, Austria's Robert Holzmann and Luxembourg's Gaston Reinesch appeared to sharpen the message on Friday.

"There will be further rate cuts next year," Villeroy told France's BFM business radio.

Speaking on Spanish TV, Escriva added it was "logical" that the ECB would "lower interest rates again at future meetings" if inflation continued to converge to target. It was 2.3% in November.

The ECB lowered the rate it pays on banks' reserves by 25 basis points to 3.0% on Thursday and investors expect at least another 100 basis points worth of cuts by June.

Lagarde refused to speculate about the future path for rates, flagging risks ranging from possible U.S. tariffs to political uncertainty at home, where France is currently without a government and Germany faces new elections, as well as stubbornly high domestic inflation.

Villeroy, a centrist who has become increasingly supportive of easier policy in recent months, threw his weight behind market pricing.

"I note that we are collectively rather comfortable with the financial markets' interest rate forecasts for next year," he said.

Even Austria's central bank governor Robert Holzmann, a hawk who was once the lone dissenter against easing, backed the return of rates to a neutral level, which neither stimulates nor curbs the economy, of around 2%.

"Interest rates will go in that direction," he told reporters. "If the market assessments as they are at the moment come true, then they will match our forecasts. And if our forecasts match, then we will probably have to adjust our interest rates to be consistent."

Luxembourg's Reinesch, who rarely discusses policy in public, told local media RTL that it would "not be unreasonable" for the deposit rate to "decrease to 2.5% by early spring", likely implying back-to-back 25 bp cuts in January and March.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau looks on during the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 16, 2024. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo

Escriva played down the prospect of a larger 50 bp rate cut, an option has been raised by some of his colleagues and adopted by central banks in Switzerland and the United States.

"In the discussions we had yesterday, the idea that prevailed is that we should keep having moves of 25 basis points downwards, which is the form that will allow us to keep evaluating the effects in terms of disinflation," the recently appointed Spanish governor said.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.