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Aussie gains on jobs surprise; dollar firms on 'Trump trade'

Published 10/16/2024, 08:41 PM
Updated 10/17/2024, 01:25 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/FIle Photo
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By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The Australian dollar rose on Thursday after employment numbers beat forecasts for a sixth month, while the dollar held near an 11-week high as it drew additional support from a potential Trump win at the upcoming U.S. election.

A press conference in China provided the highlight for the Asia day as Beijing focused on measures to prop up the country's beleaguered property sector.

However, the briefing failed to excite markets as policymakers essentially reiterated their commitment to boost the housing market, but did not unveil any new significant measures that some investors were hoping for.

The onshore yuan reversed early gains and eased 0.06% to 7.1234 per dollar, while its offshore counterpart was last a touch higher at 7.1343 per dollar.

"From today's press conference, we think few incremental policies on boosting home demand were announced, as the minister reiterated municipal governments' autonomy to relax buying curbs," said Morningstar equity analyst Jeff Zhang.

"We expect an acceleration in execution with more distressed developers receiving funds for home completions, which would help shore up homebuyers' confidence."

The Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, gained 0.29% to $0.6685, as the disappointment from China offset some of the Antipodean currency's strong gains from an upbeat jobs report at home.

Data on Thursday showed net employment in Australia surged 64,100 in September from August, well above market expectations for a 25,000 rise, while the jobless rate held steady.

That led traders to pare back bets of a first interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in December.

"With the labour market running red hot, the (RBA) won't cut rates before the first half of next year," said Abhijit Surya, Australia and New Zealand economist at Capital Economics.

In the broader market, the dollar was on the front foot, after having scaled an 11-week top against a basket of peers in the previous session.

The euro fell to its lowest in over two months at $1.0851, ahead of a monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank later on Thursday where it is expected to deliver another rate cut.

Against a stronger dollar, sterling traded 0.05% lower at $1.2984, languishing near Wednesday's two-month low hit on the back of weaker-than-expected UK inflation data.

The yen struggled near the 150 per dollar level and was last at 149.52.

The dollar has not only drawn support from a run of upbeat data on the U.S. economy which has in turn caused traders to scale back their expectations of Fed rate cuts, but also on the possibility of a victory by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at next month's election.

The dollar index nudged up 0.06% to 103.60, matching Wednesday's strongest level for the index since early August.

"His core policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes would produce a more inflationary outlook in the U.S., diminishing prospects for aggressive Fed rate cuts over the cycle," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/FIle Photo

Analysts expect the dollar to strengthen in the event of a Trump victory and for bonds to come under pressure.

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar was flat at $0.6057, after having fallen to a two-month low on Wednesday as data showed domestic inflation returned to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's target range of 1% to 3% in the third quarter, keeping the door open for the central bank to continue aggressively cutting rates.

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