⏳ Final hours! Save up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Disinflation, weaker growth put pressure on Asian central banks

Published 01/23/2015, 12:45 AM
Updated 01/23/2015, 12:50 AM
© Reuters. Workers install the chassis along a production line at a truck factory of Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co. Ltd (JAC Motors) in Hefei

By Koh Gui Qing and Christine Kim

BEIJING/SEOUL (Reuters) - Chinese factories were forced to cut prices for the sixth straight month in January to sell their products, while economic growth in South Korea slowed sharply, raising the prospect of more policy easing from major central banks in Asia.

The weak manufacturing reading from China added to expectations that Beijing will have to announce fresh stimulus measures soon, and came a day after the European Central Bank took the ultimate leap and launched a huge bond-buying program as it tries to stave off deflation and kick-start growth.

China's manufacturing growth stalled for the second month in a row, the HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey showed on Friday, while the sub-index for input prices fell to the lowest since the global financial crisis, reflecting a tumble in oil prices that is spreading disinflationary pressure throughout the globe.

Chinese companies again cut output prices, but more deeply than in December, eroding their profit margins and pointing to faltering demand.

Analysts at Nomura saw more downside pressure on China's producer prices, "enhancing our concerns over deflation".

"This looks like a trend and it will affect core inflation at some stage. So the PBOC will very likely react to such deflation concerns," said Chang Chun Hua, an economist at Nomura, adding he expected the central bank to cut commercial banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in the first quarter to free up more money to lend.

News out of South Korea made for uncomfortable reading as well. Asia's fourth-largest economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in the October-December period on-quarter, less than half of the 0.9 percent gain in the third quarter.

A senior statistics official from the central bank pointed to the uncertainty facing the trade-reliant economy, not least from the slowdown in China, South Korea's biggest export market.

RACE TO THE BOTTOM?

The Bank of Korea is widely expected to cut interest rates in the first half of this year.

In Bangkok, Thailand's finance minister urged the central bank to cut rates to help the sputtering economy and said he was worried that the strength of the baht currency will hurt exports, a key growth engine.

In Australia, investors now see a bigger chance of a cut after surprise easing from Canada earlier this week, while India last week cut rates earlier than expected and hinted at more to come.

The lone bright spot in Asia was Japan, where manufacturers saw a pick up in domestic and overseas orders this month and hired more staff.

Still, the Bank of Japan is struggling to reach its ambitious 2 percent inflation target two years into so-called 'Abenomics' – a mix of aggressive monetary and fiscal policy plus structural reform aimed at pulling the country out of decades of deflation, a fate other global policymakers are desperate to avoid.

Indeed, earlier this week, the BoJ slashed its inflation forecasts.

While the Japanese central bank signaled it was in no hurry to add to its massive asset-buying scheme, some analysts suspect it will have to do more later in the year.

"With very low inflation, or even negative inflation and some slack remaining, we expect that advanced economy monetary policy will continue to loosen overall," analysts at Citi wrote in a note to clients.

"ECB QE will probably be scaled up further over time. We also expect the BoJ to expand QE further around mid-year."

Friday's reports in Asia came a day after the European Central Bank launched a full-scale attack on the threat of deflation, pledging to pump hundreds of billions in new money into a sagging euro zone economy.

While surveys on the euro zone manufacturing sector due later on Friday will not reflect the ECB's latest measures, any disappointment would only serve to further justify its bold action.

© Reuters. Workers install the chassis along a production line at a truck factory of Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co. Ltd (JAC Motors) in Hefei

Similar reports on the U.S. factory sector may highlight concerns that its economy could be the only engine driving global growth this year.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.