* UK house prices and retail sales up strongly in Oct
* Surge in car imports pushes UK trade gap wider * Fitch warns of risks to Britain's triple-A rating
By Christina Fincher and Fiona Shaikh
LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - British house prices jumped last month, retail sales notched up their best October in seven years and car imports leapt at their fastest rate since 1996 -- all suggesting a consumer-led recovery may not be far off.
However, the risks to the economy were underlined by Fitch Ratings agency which warned Britain was most at risk among major economies of losing its top-notch rating. [ID:nT286946]
Britain's economy looks set to return to growth in the fourth quarter of this year after suffering its longest recession since World War Two.
Policymakers have been hoping the weak pound could encourage an export-led recovery and help rebalance Britain's economy. Tuesday's data suggested consumers were leading the charge for now.
"It's all consumer positive, at least in the short term," said Brian Hilliard, chief UK economist at Societe Generale. "House prices are showing a strong recovery, retail sales are booming and the trade data is showing the impact of the car scrappage scheme."
A survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed 34 percent more surveyors reported price rises in the three months to October than price falls. That was the highest since December 2006, when Britain's economy was booming and house prices were rising at a double-digit rate. [ID:nLAG005910]
The British Retail Consortium said the value of like-for-like sales were 3.8 percent higher last month than a year ago. That was the highest monthly reading since April and the best October reading since 2002. [ID:nLAG005909]
"With the strong correlation between housing and consumer spending, as well as the feedback from house prices to the quality of lenders' balance sheets and collateral, the housing upturn is a major plus for the economy," said Michael Saunders, UK economist at Citi.
IMPORTS SURGE
A surge in car imports pushed Britain's goods trade deficit in September to its widest since January, surprising analysts who had expected the weakness in the pound to help narrow the shortfall.
Exports rose 3.9 percent on the month -- a rise Britain's trade minister Mervyn Davies said was "significant". But imports rose almost twice as fast, by 7.5 percent.
That widened Britain's goods trade gap to 7.19 billion pounds, its biggest deficit since January, from 6.07 billion pounds in August.
Car imports shot up 30 percent, the biggest rise in 13 years according to the statistics office which cited the impact of the government's incentive scheme to encourage Britons to buy new cars.
"The increase in the trade deficit was primarily due to a jump in imports, which suggests that UK domestic demand is starting to improve," said Howard Archer at Global Insight.
The data will fuel hopes Britain will catch up with some of its biggest trading partners, who have already emerged from recession. The government, facing an election by next June and trailing in opinion polls, has said it expects growth to return by the end of the year.
A separate survey for the Times newspaper said Britons were more optimistic about the economy than at any time for the past 18 months. [ID:nLA559652] (Additional reporting by David Milliken; editing by Chris Pizzey)