Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Brazil halves 2019 economic growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.6%

Published 07/12/2019, 10:48 AM
Updated 07/12/2019, 10:51 AM
Brazil halves 2019 economic growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.6%

By Marcela Ayres and Jamie McGeever

BRASILIA (Reuters) - Brazil's government slashed its economic growth forecast for this year to 0.8% from 1.6%, the Economy Ministry said on Friday, blaming continued weakness in the second quarter following the economy's contraction in the first.

A challenging global outlook in the first half of the year weighed on trade and investment inflows, leading to investment projects being postponed, while uncertainty surrounding pension reform also put investment projects on ice and slowed growth, the ministry said.

The steep downward revision brings the government's outlook in line with that of the central bank and private sector consensus. The government also reduced its 2020 growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.6%.

"Available monthly indicators from the second quarter of 2019 suggest the recovery remains slow," the Economy Ministry said in its Macroeconomic Panorama report for July. "Business and consumer confidence has fallen since the start of the year due to the slow recovery," it said.

For the average Brazilian, however, the economy may feel even tougher than the headline figures suggest. According to the government's updated forecasts, gross domestic product growth per capita this year will be zero.

The new forecasts do not "completely" take into account approval of the government's pension reform bill, which took a huge step forward this week after the lower house of Congress overwhelmingly voted in favor of the bill's basic text.

Speaking at a news conference in Brasilia on Friday, special secretary to the Economy Ministry Waldery Rodrigues said pension reform could add 0.5 percentage point to annual GDP growth over a period of several years.

The social security system overhaul aims to shore up the country's finances, save Brazil around 1 trillion reais ($267 billion) over the next decade, boost investment and kick-start growth.

The government also lowered its 2019 inflation forecast to 3.8% from 4.1%, again in line with market expectations.

($1 = 3.74 reais)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.