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Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: March 5 - 9

Published 03/04/2012, 10:28 AM
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Investing.com - Natural gas prices were largely unchanged on Friday, steadying after Thursday’s steep plunge as market sentiment continued to be dominated by concerns over mild late-winter weather forecasts and bloated U.S. inventories.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in April settled at USD2.466 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday, losing 7.8% over the week, the biggest weekly drop since early February.

Prices fell to USD2.443 per million British thermal units on Thursday, the lowest since February 16.

Natural gas prices plummeted almost 6% on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. fell by 82 billion cubic feet last week. Analysts had expected U.S. natural gas storage to drop by 90 billion cubic feet.

Inventories fell by 85 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 118 billion cubic feet, according to U.S. Energy Department data.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.513 trillion cubic feet as of last week, a record high for this time of year and 45% higher than the five-year average.

The smaller-than-expected drawdown triggered the worst single day sell-off in the natural gas market since January 19, when prices dropped to a ten-year low of USD2.319 per million British thermal units.

Prices found some support Friday amid speculation utility providers in the U.S. were switching from pricier coal to cheaper natural gas. Late-season nuclear plant outages in the U.S. also helped underpin prices.

Barclays Capital said in a report Friday that, "Coal and gas have essentially traded places, with the cost of gas-fired generation challenging coal in most major markets in the U.S. The market share grabbed by gas will be real and lasting."

But the near-term downtrend in prices is expected to continue amid indications demand for the heating fuel will remain weak in coming weeks.

The Commodity Weather Group said earlier in the week that the U.S. Northeast and Ohio Valley-states were expected to become much warmer-than-normal by the second week of March.

The above-average weather outlook comes after the CWG said last week that March was forecast to be 13.5% warmer than March of last year.
 
According to private forecaster MDA EarthSat, temperatures were expected to be 8 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit (4.4 to 7.8 Celsius) above normal from Ohio to New England from March 9 through March 13.

Market participants noted that April is considered a transition month for natural gas.

Futures contracts tend to trade more lightly during spring months because demand for heating is weak and natural gas-fueled power plants have yet to step up production to serve air conditioners.

Market analysts expect natural gas prices to retest January’s ten-year low of USD2.319 per million British thermal units, amid expectations U.S. gas inventories will end the winter at a record high 2.2 trillion cubic feet.

Early withdrawal estimates for next week’s storage data range from a decline of 66 billion cubic feet to 95 billion cubic feet, compared to last year's drop of 63 billion cubic feet and the five-year average decline for the week of 92 billion.

Last winter at this time, cold weather conditions led to a decline of more than 2 trillion cubic feet from U.S. storage to help meet the surge in heating demand.

In contrast, only 1.4 trillion cubic feet of storage gas has been burned this winter season, a 36% drop.

Winter so far in the U.S. has been the second mildest since 1950. It is running about 13% warmer than the 30-year normal, according to recent data from MDA EarthSat.    

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for April delivery traded at USD106.58 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, retreating 2.73% on the week, while heating oil for April delivery slumped 2.96% over the week to settle at USD3.204 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

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