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FOREX-Euro falls for 3rd straight day vs U.S. dollar

Published 02/14/2011, 04:31 PM
Updated 02/14/2011, 04:36 PM
EUR/USD
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* Euro at 3-week low vs dollar as debt concerns weigh

* EUR/USD breaks below key technical support

* Implied volatility on one-month euro/dollar falls (Updates prices, adds quotes)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a three-week low against the dollar on Monday and was viewed as vulnerable to extended losses after a European finance ministers' meeting provided little clarity about concrete solutions to the region's fiscal problems.

The single currency underperformed the dollar for a third straight day, dropping below a crucial 100-day moving average at $1.3543 on electronic platform EBS. Further losses below $1.3500 could take the euro down to support at $1.3360, the 50 percent retracement of the January to February rally.

"The euro remains below $1.35 as its vulnerabilities were again exposed," said David Watt, senior fixed income and currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

European finance ministers met in Brussels on Monday to discuss ways of strengthening the 440 billion euro bailout fund. But Germany remains reluctant to bolster the facility without euro zone commitments on closer economic coordination. Germany's support as Europe's largest economy is essential to any deal. For details, see [ID:nLDE71D0JU]

In addition, news about troubled German bank WestLB also added to pressure on the euro. WestLB [WDLG.UL] is preparing to suggest its own break-up to the European Commission on Tuesday to win approval for billions in state aid, three people familiar with the matter said. [ID:nLDE71D1FT]

In late trading, the euro slipped 0.4 percent to $1.3485. The single euro zone currency rallied a bit in the afternoon after it triggered stops that took it to a North American session high at $1.3506. But it could not gain any traction beyond that.

Greg Michalowski, chief FX analyst at New York-based FX online broker FXDD, said the euro has a bearish bias if it is trading below the 100-day moving average at $1.3543.

Traders, however, said losses in the euro have been limited by central bank buying seeking to diversify out of U.S. dollars.

The dollar was up around 0.2 percent on the day against a currency basket to 78.598 <.DXY>, trading above its 100-day moving average for the first time in four weeks.

The dollar fell against the yen for the first time in nine days, dropping 0.2 percent to 83.30 yen .

The increase in sovereign debt risk has pushed 10-year government bond yields higher for Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain, with the spread to German 10-year government bond yields widening.

That said, overall euro sentiment has improved significantly since December. The 25 delta risk reversals, a measure of risk sentiment, on front-end euro/dollar are still showing a bias toward puts, or expectations for a currency decline, but the puts have become less extreme. On Monday, euro puts were trading at -1.55 vols, rising from -2.60 vols in early December.

Meanwhile, implied volatility on the one-month euro/dollar contract declined for a second straight day, trading around 10.80 percent on Monday. Volatility has been benign so far this year, trading well below December's highs around 15 percent, suggesting a more tranquil market than that of the last quarter.

European bond auctions were also a key focus for investors on Monday.

Italy sold 5.2 billion euros of five- and 30-year bonds in a sale that went smoothly despite renewed concerns about peripheral countries' debt loads after Portugal's syndicated deal struggled in the secondary market last week.[ID:nLDE71D0I8]

Portuguese 10-year bonds were the hardest hit on Monday in the euro zone, with benchmark debt yields in Portugal climbing to around all-time highs above 7 percent.

"We think the odds that Portugal will have to seek an assistance package are increasing," said Marc Chandler, global head of FX strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

Spanish bond auctions will be a focus for euro zone investors on Thursday, while investors await details of a European debt rescue fund next month.

Focus on the euro zone's concerns has overshadowed President Barack Obama's 2012 budget plan, which aims to slash the U.S. deficit by $1.1 trillion over 10 years. For full coverage of 2012 budget proposal click on [ID:nN11152338]
To visit Reuters Insider's "United States of Distress" microsite, please double-click: http://link.reuters.com/jyg97r
(Additional reporting by Julie Haviv; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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