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Grain futures mostly higher ahead of USDA export data

Published 08/16/2012, 05:51 AM
Investing.com - U.S. grain futures were mostly higher during European morning hours on Thursday, as market participants awaited weekly export sales data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to gauge the strength of global demand for U.S. supplies.

Escalating concerns over scorching heat and dry weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest and Great Plains-region have been fuelling a furious rally in grain prices since mid-June.

Corn prices have surged nearly 50% during the period, wheat futures soared approximately 38%, while soy prices added 22%.

However, prices have been under pressure in recent days as market players sold positions to lock in gains amid concerns high prices may be hurting global demand for U.S. supplies.

The USDA will release its weekly report on export sales of U.S. grain supplies later in the day.

Meanwhile, updated weather models continued to predict below average rainfall across the U.S. Midwest from August 18 to 22.

Conditions of U.S. corn and soybean crops remained at the lowest level since 1988 for this time of year, according to weekly crop progress data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture released earlier in the week.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, corn futures for September delivery traded at USD7.9512 a bushel, adding 0.2%. The September contract was stuck in a tight trading range of USD7.9650 a bushel, the daily high and a session low of USD7.8950.

Front-month prices touched an all-time high of USD8.4238 a bushel on August 9.

Corn prices have been under pressure in recent sessions after the USDA last week cut its estimates of overall demand for U.S. corn by 12% from a month earlier, due to higher prices and increased competition from South American exporters.

However, any significant losses were limited amid ongoing concerns over lingering drought conditions in the U.S. Midwest and Great Plains-region.

Weekly crop progress data from the USDA showed that 23% of the U.S. corn crop was rated in ‘good’ to excellent’ condition as of last week, significantly below the 60% recorded in the same week a year earlier.

The U.S. produced 38% of the world's corn last year, making it the both world's largest corn producing nation and the largest exporter of the grain.

Elsewhere, soybeans futures for September delivery traded at USD16.5450 a bushel, shedding 0.3%. Prices fell by as much as 0.8% earlier to trade at a daily low of USD16.4650 a bushel.

Soy futures have gained sharply in recent weeks, as the same hot, dry weather that boosted corn was seen benefitting soy futures as well. Soybeans are grown in many of the same regions across the U.S. as corn.

The USDA said 30% of the soybean crop was rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ last week, up a modest 1% from the previous week. Despite the improvement, U.S. soy crop conditions remain at the lowest levels since 1988 for this time of year.

Meanwhile, wheat for September delivery traded at USD8.5762 a bushel, climbing 1.35%. The September contract rose by as much as 1.75% earlier to hit a session high of USD8.6150.

Front-month prices fell to a five-week low of USD8.3875 a bushel on August 14.

Wheat futures have lost nearly 6.5% in the four sessions leading up to Thursday after the USDA raised its average wheat-yield estimate to a record 48 bushels per acre last week.

But prices regained strength after influential Russian industry group SovEcon fuelled fears over the implementation of export limits on Russian grain shipments.

Russia's exportable grain surplus of 10 million to 11 million tonnes could run out by November if the country retains a high pace of exports

Russia is a major wheat exporter and competes with the U.S. for business on the global market. Fears over a disruption to supplies from the country could boost demand for U.S. supplies, which is the world’s third largest wheat producer and biggest exporter.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.

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