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UK labor market stands firm against Brexit uncertainty in first quarter

Published 05/18/2016, 08:34 AM
© Reuters. People look at job listings at the Careers and Jobs Live careers fair at the ExCeL centre in London

By Ana Nicolaci da Costa and Andy Bruce

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's labor market mostly withstood the uncertainty around June's European Union membership referendum in the first quarter, as the employment rate increased and the number of jobless edged lower.

The number of unemployed fell by 2,000 in the three months to March, the Office for National Statistics said, while the unemployment rate held steady at 5.1 percent as expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

The number of people in work rose by 44,000 in the first quarter of this year, taking the employment rate to a record high of 74.2 percent. But the pace of hiring slowed from 195,00 in the last three months of 2015.

Britain's economy slowed in the first quarter, and recent data suggested it could lose further momentum as uncertainty around the June 23 vote takes a toll on consumers and investors.

"With or without the EU referendum, a slower rate of job gains seemed likely but the actual outturn was by no means as bad as many feared," said Sam Hill, senior UK economist at RBC.

"Ahead of the EU referendum, it is very difficult for either us or the (Bank of England) to take a firm view on the extent to which hiring activity has been affected by the uncertainty of the outcome which ... means the near-term implication for policy is very limited."

The BoE has said the most recent weakness in data reflects the forthcoming vote, but has also said it would treat economic data around the vote with caution.

The number of people making jobless claims fell by 2,400 in April to 737,800 but was revised sharply higher in March. The claimant count rose by 14,700 in March - the biggest increase since September 2011.

SLUGGISH WAGE GROWTH

Wages largely lagged the broader economic recovery in recent years, and now that the economy was slowing, that weakness was likely to persist, analysts said.

Excluding bonuses, earnings rose by 2.1 percent year-on-year in the three months to March, down from 2.2 percent and against expectations for a 2.3 percent rise.

"There are plenty of reasons for companies to be taking a cautious stance on pay deals at the moment, particularly with a more fragile growth outlook and political uncertainty on the horizon," Lee Hopley, EEF chief economist said.

A survey by the industry group showed pay increases in the manufacturing sector, which has been struggling of late, averaged 1.7 percent in the three months to April, down from 1.8 percent in the three months to March.

The BoE is watching for signs of stronger pay growth as it considers when to raise rates from their record low, which economists expect will only happen next year.

The ONS said there was no anecdotal evidence that the vote on Brexit and that the introduction of a higher minimum wage in April had affected the data.

© Reuters. People look at job listings at the Careers and Jobs Live careers fair at the ExCeL centre in London

Private industry surveys have pointed to falling jobs vacancies and suggest employers have favored temporary staff over permanent staff as the referendum nears.

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