💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

UK economy's summer surge turns out stronger than expected

Published 10/10/2018, 05:47 AM
© Reuters. Workers cross London Bridge during the morning rush hour in London

By Andy Bruce and William Schomberg

LONDON (Reuters) - The British economy's summer surge turned out to be stronger than expected as hot weather spurred consumer spending, although a weak August hinted at slower growth ahead of Brexit next year, data showed on Wednesday.

The economy expanded 0.7 percent during the three months to August, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, beating the consensus in a Reuters poll of economists for growth of 0.6 percent.

While Wednesday's data is likely to come as a pleasant surprise to Bank of England officials who had expected to see slower growth over the third quarter, they will be more cautious about the coming months.

More recent private-sector business surveys point to fairly modest economic growth, suggesting the hot weather may have been a factor behind the upturn seen over the summer months.

In August alone the economy stagnated, the ONS said, compared with forecasts for a rise of 0.1 percent.

"We think there is a very real risk that growth will slow markedly in the fourth quarter due to appreciable Brexit and political uncertainties weighing down on business investment," Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club consultancy, said.

Britain's economy slowed after the June 2016 Brexit vote, its growth rate slipping from top spot among the Group of Seven rich nations to jostling with long-term laggards Japan and Italy for bottom place in the rankings.

Consumers in particular were squeezed by the jump in inflation which followed the pound's tumble after the referendum, especially as wages have failed to keep up.

That said, in recent months an unusually warm summer and the soccer World Cup encouraged many to splash out on drinks and pub and restaurant visits.

"The economy continued to rebound strongly after a weak spring with retail, food and drink production and housebuilding all performing particularly well during the hot summer months," ONS statistician Rob Kent-Smith said.

"However, long-term growth continues to lag behind its historical trend."

In year-on-year terms, growth slowed in August to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent in July.

A flat August for the economy came despite a solid rise in oil and gas output, which reflected a smaller-than-usual amount of maintenance taking place in production sites. Manufacturing output, however, contracted and there was no growth in the services industry.

© Reuters. Workers cross London Bridge during the morning rush hour in London

Separate trade data showed Britain's goods trade deficit with the rest of the world touched a three-month high in August, despite the smallest gap in EU goods trade since September 2015.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.