👀 Ones to watch: The MOST undervalued stocks to buy right nowSee Undervalued Stocks

Bank of England to stay on autopilot until Feb

Published 01/06/2010, 07:01 PM
Updated 01/06/2010, 07:03 PM

* WHAT: Bank of England monetary policy decision

* WHEN: 1200 GMT, Thursday Jan. 7

* UK rates to stay at 0.5 percent, QE target at 200 bln sterling * QE gilt buying likely to end in Feb if recovery cemented

* Rates to stay at record low until late 2010

By Christina Fincher

LONDON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is unlikely to tamper with its monetary policy settings on Thursday, but growing signs Britain has pulled out of recession mean it is expected to halt its quantitative easing programme next month.

The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously in December to leave interest rates at 0.5 percent and to keep its target for asset purchases -- the bulk of which have been gilts -- at 200 billion pounds ($320 billion).

The BoE is on track to complete the last of these gilt purchases just before its February meeting, by which time it will also have fourth-quarter GDP data and new growth and inflation forecasts to hand.

"The Monetary Policy Committee is likely to wait for February's inflation report before reviewing its asset purchase programme," said Vicky Redwood at Capital Economics.

Since it exhausted its conventional monetary firepower in March by cutting rates to 0.5 percent and began buying gilts, the MPC has only ever tweaked policy in months that coincide with its quarterly projections.

Preliminary Q4 figures due later this month are expected to confirm the economy returned to growth at the end of 2009, but economists are split on the extent to which the economy will maintain traction over the course of the coming year.

Recent activity indicators have been encouraging. Britain's manufacturing and services sectors are growing at their fastest pace in two years, and money supply growth and bank lending both picked up at the end of last year.

But consumer confidence fell in December and analysts warn that headwinds to recovery remain, not least a record government deficit which will require deep cuts to public spending in the coming years.

Such a backdrop has convinced most economists that British interest rates will not rise until the second half of this year at the earliest.

"It's one thing to bring an end to quantitative easing, another to start raising rates," said David Owen, chief European financial economist at Jefferies. "What remains to be seen is how much of the recovery has been led by an upturn in the inventory cycle. Our view is that the BoE will hold rates at 0.5 percent for the whole of the year."

(Editing by Toby Chopra)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.