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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: August 27 - 31

Published 08/26/2012, 05:09 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rose against the Swiss franc on Friday, trimming some of the week’s losses as market sentiment weakened after German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected Greece’s request to extend the timeframe given to implement its economic reform program.

USD/CHF hit 0.9537 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since July 4; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9595 by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 1.30% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9523, the low of July 4 and resistance at 0.9677, the high of June 28.

Following talks with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras on Friday, Chancellor Merkel said it was up to Greece to show that it could implement the austerity measures agreed with its international creditors, but reiterated that the country should stay in the euro zone.

Also Friday, European Central Bank officials said that bank chief Mario Draghi may wait until Germany’s Constitutional Court rules on the legality of the euro zone’s permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, before unveiling full details of his plan to buy government bonds. The German ruling is expected on September 12.

Market sentiment had improved earlier in the week, amid growing expectations that the ECB will implement policy measures to help stabilize the euro zone's sovereign debt markets at its next policy meeting in early September.

The greenback came under broad selling pressure after Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s August meeting showed that many policymakers think additional easing may be warranted "fairly soon" unless there is evidence of a "substantial and sustainable" strengthening in the economic recovery.

In addition, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional oversight panel on Friday that the U.S. central bank has room to deliver additional monetary stimulus to boost the U.S. economy.

But the dollar remained supported, as a number of U.S. reports released at the end of last week painted a mixed picture the country’s economic recovery, prompting investors to temper hopes for fresh stimulus measures by the U.S. central bank.

In Switzerland, official data showed on Thursday that the trade surplus widened unexpectedly in July, rising to CHF2.92 billion from a revised surplus of CHF2.19 billion the previous month.

Analysts had expected Switzerland’s trade surplus to narrow to CHF2.10 billion in July.

In the coming week investors will be looking ahead to a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke at an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at the end of the week.

In addition, the U.S. is to release revised data on second quarter economic growth, while Italy is to hold an auction of 10-year governments bonds, in what will be an important test of investor appetite for the country’s debt.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, August 28

The U.S. is to release a report on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on house price inflation.

Wednesday, August 29

Switzerland is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, which is designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

The U.S. is to produce revised data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. The country is also to release industry data on pending home sales, as well as official data on crude oil stockpiles and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.

Thursday, August 30

The U.S. is to produce official data on personal consumption expenditures and personal spending. In addition, the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is set to begin.

Friday, August 31

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on Chicago’s purchasing managers’ index as well as revised data by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on factory orders.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium; his comments will be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.


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