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Trade Desk Thoughts:
European Pair Review
EUR/USD The four hour trend is short. The pair has followed the S&P futures market lower and formed a 13 day slide that took the pair from 1.4650, down to test 1.3850, and to areas not seen in seven months of trade. The move out of the euro has taken pressure off Euro-zone export prices, and in the week of the ECB rate decision traders will be looking for signs that a reversal is close. Daily Chart: ATR is 135 pips. RSI is oversold. SMA is resistance. Favor a straddle.
GBP/USD The four hour trend is short. GBP/USD is still trading within a daily chart sideways channel that has held as support and resistance since May 2009. In the week of the Bank of England rate decision there is no reason to think that a break and hold will now happen, if it has not held before. The pair is back into the price points formed in early January. Daily Chart: ATR is 160 pips. RSI is just under neutral. SMA is resistance. Favor an oversold bounce.
USD/CHF The four hour trend is long. The pair recently broke through the 4 hour chart channel that has been in place since September 2009, and in doing so gets the pair into another price channel that started in May 2009. If the near-term moves hold, in reaction to Usd buying that is linked to Treasury note purchases, it will likely lead to this pair stagnating in the same 300-400 channel that held it last summer. Daily Chart: ATR is 105 pips. RSI is heading towards over-bought. SMA is support. Favor a straddle.
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