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POLL-Paris stocks seen gaining 10 pct by end-2011

Published 12/08/2010, 09:16 AM
Updated 12/08/2010, 09:24 AM

* CAC 40 seen adding 4.3 percent in first half of 2011

* Euro zone debt woes seen weighing, but not major headwind

By Blaise Robinson

PARIS, Dec 8 (Reuters) - France's CAC 40 stock index is seen rising around 10 percent by end-2011 from its current level as liquidity remains abundant and companies post strong profit growth, according to a Reuters poll.

The latest quarterly survey of around 30 analysts and fund managers conducted over the past week shows the CAC 40 at 4,200 points by the end of December 2011 compared with its closing level on Tuesday of 3,810.50.

The poll, however, shows the CAC 40 at 3,975 points by the end of June 2011, up a meagre 4.3 percent as fears surrounding the euro zone debt crisis are seen rattling investors during the first part of the year.

"The 2011 outlook continues to be positive for risky assets, including equities, supported by the absence of a double dip, growth in emerging economies and ample liquidity conditions thanks to a low rate environment and the second round of U.S. quantitative easing," said Roland Kaloyan, strategist, global asset allocation, at Societe Generale CIB.

He sees the CAC at 4,300 points at mid-2011 and at 4,700 at end-2011.

After a disappointing 2010 performance which has so far left the CAC 40 more than 3 percent in the red, a 10 percent gain over next year would represent a healthy return. Still, analysts expect much faster growth from emerging stock markets like Brazil and India next year.

At the time of the last poll conducted in late September, analysts and fund managers envisaged the CAC 40 hitting 4,100 points by mid-2011.

France's benchmark index, in which the most influential stocks include bellwethers such as Sanofi-Aventis, L'Oreal, Total and BNP Paribas is down 3.2 percent so far in 2010.

This time last year, analysts had expected the CAC 40 to gain more than 12 percent by the end of 2010.

The index has been dragged down by concerns that the Greek and Irish debt crises spread to other euro zone countries and derail the region's frail economic recovery.

Most analysts and fund managers, however, see stocks benefiting from a rise in investors' appetite for risky assets on the back of rising inflation expectations, sustained economic growth in emerging markets and strong corporate results.

Concerns over the euro zone debt crisis are seen weighing on the market in the first part of the year -- with the focus on French banks with exposure to peripheral Europe -- but the worries should ease later in the year as the European Union tackles the problems, analysts and fund managers said.

While austerity measures across the region will dampen economic growth, French stocks should benefit from a strong recovery in investment spending in the United States and sustained growth in emerging markets.

"Consumer spending and investment in the U.S. and emerging markets will be the engine of global growth and the CAC will benefit from that," said Geraud Missonnier, senior sales trader at Saxo Banque, who sees the CAC 40 at 4,000 points at mid-2011 and at 4,300 points at end-2011.

The expected strong inflow of investors' money into equities is also seen supporting the market rally next year, as risk appetite continue to recover.

"The return of inflation will push people out of fixed income investments and back into risk. Commodities-related shares should be in vogue next year," said Agilis Gestion fund manager Arnaud Scarpaci, who sees the CAC 40 at 4,500 points at mid-2011 and at 4,750 points at end-2011.

(Polling by Blaise Robinson and Alexandre Boksenbaum-Granier, additional polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)

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