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The armchair quarterbacks will be out in force over the weekend to extol the virtues of what transpired in a 30 minute period of trade on Friday, with very few likely to be reasoning the fact that on the last session of the month the dollar lost ground without great backing from global markets. The speculative interest in oil pushed prices back to where they sat one month earlier, there was no new ground broken in the near-term equity charts, and outside of the dollar index the global markets looked content to let the dollar bears take things where they wanted.
Unless the Usd is now going to lead market momentum, after twenty four months of being dominated by equity trade, these moves have as much chance of reversing as they do holding higher. The parabolic nature of the thirty minute ride on the European pairs, and yen, will be hard to sustain without first testing the break-out point. Global markets were closed or in the process of closing, at the time of this break, it was not backed by volume increases to any degree, and as such the gap on Sunday will likely be quickly closed.
In review, we have taken the EUR/USD members Trade Plan and released some detail from it that may help balance the view that the Usd is going straight down from 78.00 to 72.00 on the dollar index. The global central bank reserve system will be under pressure to react to a reducing Usd value, and 72.00, 75.00, and 78.00 are the price areas that have drawn in huge bid action previously. The euro makes up nearly 60% of the dollar index, and has been showing a consistent 80-90% correlation to oil prices, and therefore will serve as the guide in early trade this week to global market sentiment.
EUR/USD: Price action just hit the outer daily chart channel range, and hit a price point that since December 2008 has not been able to be breached, and an area that failed to break three times last week There is nothing fundamentally backing the Euro-zone to now easily allow the euro to take out an area that will force a realignment of global currency reserve values, if 1.4350 is broken. Therefore a near-term reversal may be the case, especially if equity markets do not make a big move higher.
The 1 hour chart was not affected by the previous session's bullish moves, it is still in mixed mode, and adds to the lack of volume, and lack of equity market moves, signaling that a reversal may be coming before any more long moves can take place. The rejection of this price on three occasions last week suggests that the 1.4095 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) may be the reversal target. A big week of economic releases will sort the questions out, and for the first time in twelve months the reaction to red flag calendar releases will be as important as global equity futures trade, to euro moves.
The late Asian and early European trading sessions will likely dominate from now until year-end, as the U.S. session gets back to its role as the equity, commodity, and futures market capital, leaving Frankfurt and London to take care of the loins share of daily forex order flows. 00:00 to 08:30 EDT will be the golden hours to work momentum from.
The markets will not want to be going into a week of trade that has red flag releases all over it, and rate decisions from the U.K., Australia, and the Euro-zone, as well as major employment releases from the U.S. at over-extended levels, and unless the dollar selling gets added to quickly, in a sign that the market is really backing the moves, a reversal looks to be on the way.
Take care going long, and expecting to easily get through 1.4300 as a break-out area; it would be better to look for a reversal that finds support to then go higher from, because 1.4350 will be an absolute road-block. The key to long-euro trading will be that any long trade will be to only take them on the days that equity and oil markets are also moving higher; that correlation will be critical if taking a long trade at a massive resistance area.
If equity markets do not move higher, and oil reverses off 69.00, the short side of euro may be in play, possibly from 1.4220 towards 1.4150, and 1.4090.
A big week of global economic releases will require attention before any trade is put on. This is one of the biggest global economic weeks of the year, and includes the ECB rate decision, Bank of England and Australian rates decisions, and a raft of U.S. based data that have the ability to move forex valuations.