TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's core machinery orders likely fell for the first time in four months in May, a Reuters poll found on Friday, suggesting companies remain cautious about new investments as the U.S.-China trade dispute drags on.
Core machinery orders likely fell 4.7% in May from the previous month, the poll of 16 economists showed. While volatile, the data series is regarded as an indicator of domestic capital spending in the next six to nine months.
They rose 5.2% in April, which was the biggest gain since last October.
Compared with a year earlier, core orders, which exclude those for ships and electric utilities, are expected to have fallen 3.9% in May, the poll showed, following a 2.5% gain in April.
"China's economic slowdown, an inventory adjustment in IT-related items and the U.S.-China trade friction likely led firms to postpone their capital spending," said Akiyoshi Takumori, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Company.
"On the other hand, demand for labor-saving investment on the back of solid domestic demand and a preferable jobs market underpin machinery orders."
The Cabinet Office will publish the machinery orders data at 8:50 a.m. Monday, July 8 Tokyo time(2350 GMT Sunday).
Analysts polled by Reuters also expected Japan's current account to register a surplus of 1.38 trillion yen ($12.8 billion) in May, down from 1.71 trillion yen in April.
Gains in the income balance, which includes earnings from overseas subsidies, offered some support but the trade deficit likely swelled due to weak exports, which resulted in a lower surplus, analysts said.
The finance ministry will announce the current account balance at the same time as the Cabinet Office's machinery orders.
The Bank of Japan's corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the prices companies charge each other for goods and services, likely rose 0.3% in June from a year earlier, slowing from a 0.7% gain in May.
Price falls in oil and coal related products, as well as chemical products and non-ferrous metal appear to have weighed on the index, analysts said.
The central bank will release CGPI on July 10.
($1 = 107.9400 yen)