👀 Copy Legendary Investors' Portfolios in One ClickCopy For Free

Instant view: China's November export growth slows ahead of Trump tariffs

Published 12/09/2024, 10:43 PM
Updated 12/10/2024, 12:00 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Containers sit at a terminal at the Yangshan deepwater port during an organised media tour, in Shanghai, China October 10, 2024. REUTERS/Casey Hall/File Photo
HG
-
CL
-

(Reuters) - China's exports grew at a slower pace in November than the previous month, while imports shrank, signalling concerns for the world's No. 2 economy as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's imminent return to the White House introduces new trade risks.

Outbound shipments from China grew 6.7% year-year-on-year last month, customs data showed on Tuesday, missing an 8.5% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 12.7% rise in October.

KEY POINTS: * Soybean: November imports at 7.15 mmt, down 9% y/y

* Crude oil: November imports at 48.52 mmt, up 14.3% y/y

* Unwrought copper: Nov imports at 528,000 mt, down 4.1% y/y

* Coal: November imports at 54.98 mmt, up 26% y/y

* Iron ore: November imports at 101.86 mmt, down 0.86% y/y

* Rare earths: November imports at 11,327 mt, down 20.9% y/y

Preliminary table of commodity trade data

Below are comments from analysts on the commodities data.

COMMENTS ON IRON ORE

PEI HAO, ANALYST, FREIGHT INVESTOR SERVICES, SHANGHAI

The trend is in line with our expectations as miners' pressure to lift shipments to achieve annual targets has eased after a wave of high shipments earlier in this year; ore demand did pick up last month but that was mainly reflected in the drawdown in portside inventory.

CHENG PENG, ANALYST, SINOSTEEL FUTURES, BEIJING

Despite a slight fall, ore imports last month still hovered at a relatively high level due to high shipments and a pick-up in demand since October.

COMMENT ON STEEL EXPORTS

JIANG MENGTIAN, ANALYST, CONSULTANCY HORIZON INSIGHTS

November steel exports remained high as rush shipments continued due to concerns over tariffs imposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. We expect total steel exports this year to surpass the record high set in 2015.

COMMENT ON SOYBEAN

WAN CHENGZHI, ANALYST AT CAPITAL JINGDU FUTURES

November imports fell short of our 7.5 million metric ton estimate due to a decrease in old Brazilian soybean imports. Most U.S. soybeans were shipped to China in October, with arrivals expected in December, leading to expectations of a significant jump in December's import volume compared with November.

COMMENT ON COPPER

ZHAO YONGCHENG, PRINCIPAL ANALYST, BENCHMARK MINERAL INTELLIGENCE

Copper shipments from Africa increased, mainly from assets owned by Chinese companies such as CMOC Group. Copper consumption has been strong this year, supported by home appliance production data in China and policies encouraging the replacement of old appliances with new ones.

LINKS: For details, see the official Customs website (www.customs.gov.cn)

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Containers sit at a terminal at the Yangshan deepwater port during an organised media tour, in Shanghai, China October 10, 2024. REUTERS/Casey Hall/File Photo

BACKGROUND:

China is the world's biggest crude oil importer and top buyer of coal, copper, iron ore and soybeans.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.