By Michelle Martin
BERLIN (Reuters) - German exports fell by the largest amount in five months in January, dropping more than forecast and putting a slight damper on the outlook for Europe's largest economy, though economists said a weak euro and cheap oil would help in the months ahead.
Seasonally-adjusted exports decreased by 2.1 percent on the month after a sharp rise in December, data from the statistics office showed. They missed the Reuters consensus forecast for a 1.5 percent drop and undershot even the lowest estimate for a 2.0 percent decline.
The data for December was revised down to a 2.8 percent gain from a previously reported 3.4 percent increase.
"It's a breather for the export sector but it's not so much a sign of upcoming weakness of the economy," said ING economist Carsten Brzeski, adding that growth of up to 0.4 percent was still likely for January-March given strong retail sales, decent industrial output and robust construction activity.
Household spending was the main growth driver in 2014 alongside resurgent investment though foreign trade, which traditionally propelled the economy, did make a contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) after dragging on it in 2013.
The government expects the economy, which expanded by 1.6 percent last year, to grow by 1.5 percent in 2015 and Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel has said this will be mainly fueled by consumer spending which is booming thanks to low unemployment, rising wages and weak inflation plus a dramatic oil price drop.
But Stefan Kipar, economist at BayernLB said the prospects for German shipments abroad were bright: "The weak euro should boost exports. The low oil price is also supporting the economy in many of Germany's trading partners, which should ultimately benefit German exporters too."
An unadjusted breakdown showed shipments to the euro zone dropped by 2.8 percent in January compared with a year ago while Germany sent 0.5 percent fewer goods to countries outside of the European Union. Exports to countries within the EU that do not use the euro were the only ones to post a gain.
Most recent data has painted a rosy picture of the economy, suggesting it could grow robustly in the first quarter, with business and consumer morale rising and unemployment falling, though a sharp drop in industrial orders did muddy the waters.
Monday's data showed imports slipped by 0.3 percent, missing the Reuters consensus forecast for a 0.5 percent gain.
The trade surplus for January narrowed to 19.7 billion euros from a revised 21.6 billion euros in December.