Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

German economy likely stagnated in Q4, escaping recession for now

Published 01/13/2023, 04:12 AM
Updated 01/13/2023, 08:02 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Cars make their way past the Victory Column shows a reduced lighting to save energy due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Berlin, Germany August 6, 2022. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner/File Photo
NG
-

By Maria Martinez and Paul Carrel

BERLIN (Reuters) -German economic output stagnated in the final quarter of 2022 and grew 1.9% over the full year, adding to signs that Europe's largest economy may dodge a recession, at least over the winter.

The full-year rise in gross domestic product reported by German statistics office Destatis on Friday just beat the mid-range forecast of 1.8% in a Reuters poll of economists. GDP in 2022 was 0.7% higher than in 2019, the year before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Our economy is adaptable and robust," finance minister Christian Lindner said.

Friday's data adds to evidence that an expected recession in the wider 20-nation euro zone over the winter months may be shorter and shallower than forecast.

Destatis president Ruth Brand said the German economy had performed well in 2022 despite the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"There were also serious material shortages and delivery bottlenecks, massively rising prices in food, skilled labour shortages and the continuing - though fading - COVID-19 pandemic," she said.

The main drivers of economic growth were household consumption, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase, and investment in machinery and equipment, posting a 2.5% on year rise.

"The economic slowdown over the winter half-year will, according to the data we have now, be milder and shorter than expected," Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in the ministry's monthly report.

Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank, said the economy had outperformed low expectations, adding: "It is possible that the recession will be postponed. On the other hand, we think it is unlikely that the recession will not materialise at all."

A recession is commonly defined as two successive quarters of contraction, and the statistics office's fourth quarter figure of zero growth was an initial readout that might yet be revised.

But there have been growing signs that the economy, which grew in the third quarter, might stave off the worst of a downturn driven by plunging gas supplies from Russia and soaring prices for energy on world markets.

German government economic adviser Monika Schnitzer on Thursday told Reuters that domestic inflation had probably peaked as global energy prices have fallen, adding that she expected natural gas prices to continue to fall this year.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Technicians work in the assembly line of German carmaker Volkswagen's electric ID. 3 car in Dresden, Germany, June 8, 2021. REUTERS/Matthias Rietschel/File Photo

Inflation eased for a second month in a row in December due to falling energy prices and a one-off government off payment of household energy bills, with EU-harmonized consumer prices rising 9.6% on the year.

Germany's state deficit was 2.6% of GDP in 2022, the statistics office added.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.