⏳ Final hours! Save up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Euro zone inflation rises more than forecast before ECB meeting

Published 08/31/2017, 06:34 AM
© Reuters. A picture illustration taken with the multiple exposure function of the camera shows a one Euro coin and a map of Europe

By Francesco Guarascio and Balazs Koranyi

BRUSSELS/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation rose more than expected in August, official data showed on Thursday, just as the European Central Bank prepares to debate whether to tighten policy after 2-1/2 years of unprecedented stimulus.

Inflation in the 19-country currency bloc, targeted by the ECB at just below 2 percent, accelerated to 1.5 percent in August from 1.3 percent, coming just ahead of expectations for 1.4 percent on the back of higher energy costs, Eurostat said on Thursday.

Underlying inflation, or prices excluding volatile food and energy costs, a figure closely watched by ECB policymakers, held steady at 1.3 percent, beating forecasts for 1.2 percent.

While the figures may strengthen the case of conservative policymakers, who are pushing for the ECB to wind down its asset-buying next year, the ECB is also now dealing with a strengthening euro, which pushes down prices.

Launched 2-1/2 years ago when the threat of deflation appeared real and imminent, the ECB's 2.3 trillion euro bond purchase scheme is due to expire at the end of the year, and policymakers promised to decide this "autumn" whether to extend the purchases or wind them down.

The euro zone economy is now growing for the 17th straight quarter, but wage growth is still paltry and sizable slack in the labour market suggests that wage inflation, a vital ingredient for overall inflation, may be sometime away, an argument for some policymakers to continue with stimulus.

Indeed, unemployment held steady at 9.1 percent in July, Eurostat said separately, with France, Spain and Italy all above the euro zone average.

ECB MEETS

ECB policymakers will next meet on Sept. 7 and while few specific decision are expected, ECB President Mario Draghi could start laying the ground for the bank's next move for when they meet on Oct 26.

A complication is the euro's 13 percent rise against the dollar this year, which could dampen inflation by reducing the cost of exports, and may slow growth by making euro zone export more expensive.

Tightening policy would also make the euro more attractive.

Indeed, policymakers already expressed concern about the euro's appreciation when they met in July, the minutes of that meeting showed, warning about the dangers of an "overshooting" currency.

Sources told Reuters this week rapid gains by the euro against the dollar are worrying a growing number of policymakers at the ECB, raising the chance its asset purchases will be phased out only slowly.

Speaking at the U.S. Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference last week, ECB President Mario Draghi argued that while growth has taken hold, patience was still needed for inflation to rise to target.

© Reuters. A picture illustration taken with the multiple exposure function of the camera shows a one Euro coin and a map of Europe

He said that inflation will move towards target once growth accelerates and the so-called output gap closes but warned that "we have to be very patient" as low productivity growth and the labour market slack will take considerable time to be resolved.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.