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METALS-Copper extends rally on econ recovery prospects

Published 04/07/2011, 03:01 PM
Updated 04/07/2011, 03:04 PM
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* Base metals ignore European Central Bank rate hike

* Copper takes bullish tone from key industry conference

* Tin nears record high

* Coming up: U.S. wholesale inventories data Friday (Recasts, adds New York dateline/byline, updates with New York closing copper price, adds graphic and trader comments)

By Chris Kelly and Rebekah Curtis

NEW YORK/LONDON, April 7 (Reuters) - Copper ended up for a third straight day on Thursday, hitting its priciest level in about two weeks, as investors once again ignored an in-line interest rate hike and continued to bet on the global economic recovery.

Copper's bullish momentum spread to other base metals, boosting the price of tin to within $10 of its mid-February record and pushing nickel up nearly 4 percent at one point.

Markets barely flinched after the European Central Bank raised rates for the first time since July 2008 by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent.

"I think people are continuing to bet big on the global recovery ... everything is hanging in there even though we are looking at additional rate hikes," said Matthew Zeman, head of trading with Kingsview Financial in Chicago.

"From an inflation-fighting standpoint, things are going to have to get a lot more serious before it starts to spook investors. A 25 basis-point hike is not going to have a huge imapct."

London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for three-month delivery peaked at $9,753 a tonne, its highest in two weeks, before ending up $65 at $9,670 a tonne.

COMEX May copper climbed 4.65 cents to settle at $4.4165 per lb.

As prices extended their gains this week, trading volumes saw a slight uptick. More than 50,500 lots traded by 2:11 p.m. EDT (1811 GMT), nearly 17 percent above the 30-day norm, Thomson Reuters preliminary data showed.

Copper traders have been feeding off of a generally optimistic tone emanating from the CESCO/CRU mining conference in Santiago, Chile, this week, where many executives and industry heavyweights are predicting a tighter supply base and a resurgence in Chinese demand in 2011.

"I think Rio Tinto has really lit a fire under this market with their commentary," Kingsview's Zeman said.

The company's copper unit chief executive said the global copper market could see a supply deficit of half a million tonnes this year and that the shortage may extend beyond 2013.

This view is wider than the market consensus of around a 400,000-tonne deficit and extends longer than forecasts by many other players who predict a more balanced market in 2013.

"I think people are basically thinking that demand is going to remain very robust even in the face of potential rate hikes," Zeman said.

But that demand optimism was held in check by another large build in LME copper warehouse stocks. Inventories rose 1,500 tonnes to 442,375 tonnes, their highest level since early July after rising steadily since December.

Investors also welcomed news that debt-ridden Portugal will make a formal request for European aid.

"The fact that Portugal accepted the bail-out calmed markets down. What Trichet said about Portugal was also positive," said VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov.

Prices eased off of their session highs after an earthquake of magnitude 7.4 shook the northeast of Japan and a tsunami warning was issued for the coast, already devastated by last month's quake and tsunami.

TIN NEARS RECORD

Tin hit a session high of $32,790 a tonne, just $9 off a record peak set in mid-February, before ending up $450 at $32,550.

Prices are expected to rise to a range of $36,000 to $38,910 per tonne over the next four weeks, as indicated by a rising channel and its wave pattern on price charts, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Aluminum edged up $2 to $2,672 a tonne, supported by the ongoing unrest in the Middle East/North African region, VTB Capital's Kryuchenkov said.

He said some aluminium refiners at risk of disruption in the area as political tensions continue. Metal Prices at 1815 GMT COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct

move COMEX Cu 441.10 4.10 +0.94 444.70 -0.81 LME Alum 2671.50 1.50 +0.06 2470.00 8.16 LME Cu 9669.00 64.00 +0.67 9600.00 0.72 LME Lead 2789.00 -31.00 -1.10 2550.00 9.37 LME Nickel 26750.00 325.00 +1.23 24750.00 8.08 LME Tin 32550.00 450.00 +1.40 26900.00 21.00 LME Zinc 2450.00 0.00 +0.00 2454.00 -0.16 SHFE Alu 16835.00 5.00 +0.03 16840.00 -0.03 SHFE Cu* 71690.00 210.00 +0.29 71850.00 -0.22 SHFE Zin 18545.00 -35.00 -0.19 19475.00 -4.78 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07 (Additional reporting by Silvia Antonioli in London; editing by Jane Baird and Jim Marshall)

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