* Business morale tops all forecasts in Reuters poll
* Data in line with upbeat sentiment in European peers
* Lower inventories boost index, but orders still weak
(Adds details, quotes)
By Deepa Babington
ROME, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Italian business confidence topped forecasts in October to jump to its highest level since September 2008, boosted by falling inventory levels and an improved outlook for production.
Economic research institute ISAE's seasonally adjusted business morale index rose to 77.1 from a revised 74.3 last month, keeping pace with cheery business sentiment data in the past week from European peers France, Germany and Belgium.
But analysts warned that the index remained at historically low levels and that the improvement in order books was marginal.
"The data is a little stronger than expected but remains at a low level in historical terms," said Marco Valli of UniCredit MIB. "There's a recovery, yes, but it's very moderated."
Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy, likely emerged from its worst post-war recession in the third quarter after five consecutive falls in quarterly gross domestic product, but a recovery is expected to be slow and patchy.
The ISAE index, which measures confidence among 4,000 companies in Italy's manufacturing sector, beat all forecasts in a Reuters survey of 20 analysts which pointed to a rise to 75.0.
Last week, data showed business morale in France, Germany and Belgium -- a bellwether for the euro zone -- all rose to at least 12-month highs in October.
In Italy, the inventories index fell to -2 from 1 in September, while the production outlook figure brightened to 0 from -4.
Italian business lobby Confindustria has forecast industrial output will post a modest recovery in October after a steep drop last month.
The orders index edged up a notch to -51 from -52 the month before.
"The worrying thing about orders is that there is still no a sign of a turnaround," said Paolo Mameli of Intesa Sanpaolo.
The figures comes a day after data showed Italian consumers remain gloomy despite Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's frequent exhortations to keep upbeat, with Italian consumer morale posting a larger than expected decline in October after six consecutive rises. (Editing by Adrian Wright and Andy Bruce)