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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: February 6 - 10

Published 02/05/2012, 10:19 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro was moderately higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, paring some of the week’s losses as sentiment improved after positive U.S. employment data, but gains were limited by uncertainty over Greek debt talks.

EUR/USD hit 1.3025 on Wednesday, the pair’s lowest since January 25; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3155 by close of trade on Friday, falling 0.83% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3041, the low of January 31 and resistance at 1.3232, the high of January 27.

The U.S. Department of Labor said nonfarm payrolls rose by 243,000 last month, the fastest increase in nine months, after a revised 203,000 gain in December. Economists had expected the U.S. economy to add 150,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to a three-year low of 8.3%.

A separate report showing a greater-than-expected expansion in the U.S. service sector in January also boosted the greenback.

The upbeat data dampened expectations for a new round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

In testimony to the House Budget Committee in Washington on Thursday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy has shown “signs of improvement” but warned that the outlook remained “uncertain”.

Meanwhile, the single currency remained under pressure amid concerns over delays in negotiations on a debt restructuring deal for Greece persisted, despite assurances from European officials that a deal is close to being finalized.

Greece needs to secure an agreement with its private creditors on a debt swap deal in order to receive its next tranche of bailout funds in order to avoid a default when a EUR14.5 billion bond repayment comes due on March 20.

In the euro zone, official data showed on Friday that retail sales declined unexpectedly in December, falling 0.4% after a 0.4% decline the previous month. Analysts had expected retail sales to rise 0.4% in December.

Earlier in the week, a report showed that the euro zone’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 10.4% in December, in line with expectations.

In the week ahead, investors will be watching developments in the euro zone, with European leaders holding a string of meetings to discuss Greece’s bailout and the financial guarantees for the European Financial Stability Facility, the euro zone’s new bailout fund.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is to hold its policy setting meeting, but the bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 1%.

In the U.S., Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify before the Senate budget committee in Washington.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 6

In the euro zone, a report is to be published by Sentix on its investor confidence index, a key gauge of economic health. In addition, Germany is to publish official data on factory orders.

Tuesday, February 7

The euro zone is to publish official data on German industrial production, an important gauge of economic health.

In the U.S., Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to testify on the economic outlook and federal budget situation before the Senate Budget Committee in Washington.

Wednesday, February 8

The U.S. is to publish a government report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, February 9

The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate, followed by a press conference. The conference will be closely watched for signs of new measures to counter the region’s sovereign debt crisis.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish government data on unemployment claims, an important signal of overall economic health.

Friday, February 10

In the euro zone, a report is to be published on French industrial production.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on the country’s trade balance, as well as preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Later in the day, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is due to speak about the housing market at the 2012 National Association of Homebuilders International Builders show.


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